oleocene.org

GillesH38 a écrit :ben suffit de me demander

bon j'ai pas vérifié, mais ce sont des chiffres glanés sur des sites souvent peakoilistes, donc peut etre pessimistes ! par exemple :

http://www.abelard.org/briefings/energy-economics.asp

metamec a écrit :Est ce que le Canada produit déja beaucoup à partir des sables?

Leur production total 2005 a baissée de 1.3% (bp review)
Bon 1.3% c'est pas grand chose, mais comme beaucoup voient le Canada comme une nouvelle AS

Shell fears cost overrun at Canada oil sands

Reuters


Toronto: Shell Canada Ltd has said its C$7.3 billion ($6.6 billion) Athabasca oil sands expansion in northern Alberta faced big expense overruns, and a partner said capital costs could be 50 per cent more than anticipated last year.

Western Oil Sands, which owns 20 per cent in the project and made the overrun estimate, also said it now expects production to begin sometime in 2010. The fourth quarter of 2009 or the first quarter of 2010 had been targeted before.

The last cost estimate, of C$7.3 billion, was provided by the project owners in August 2005, and 50 per cent more than that could see costs top C$11 billion. Another update from the owners is expected at the end of July.

Shell Canada owns 60 per cent of the project and Chevron Canada owns the remaining 20 per cent.

Shell Canada did not give a target for overruns as Western did, though a spokeswoman said "we see numbers in that range" and that its reviews of the project were not complete yet.

"We see signs of a heated market for labour, materials and equipment everywhere and we must assure ourselves that we can execute successfully," Brian Straub, Shell Canada's senior vice-president, oil sands, said in a statement.

"Right now our focus is on mitigating the costs and risks."

Western said project reviews were focused on how to address the "twin challenges" of cost and supply.

Shell Canada, majority owned by Royal Dutch Shell Plc, said the first stage of the expansion should add about 100,000 barrels a day of capacity, and lay down associated infrastructure for further growth.

The Athabasca overruns are not the first in Canada's oil sands, located in the northern reaches of the western province of Alberta.

Syncrude Canada, the world's largest producer of synthetic crude oil, saw delays and billions of overruns in the expansion of its project north of Fort McMurray, Alberta.

To sum it up:


Canada does have a lot of oil in the form of oil sands;

that oil is pretty expensive to produce - indeed, its price increases with that of oil itself, and it has very real environmental consequences locally;
ce pétrole est plutot cher à produire - en effet, son cout augmente avec le prix du pétrole lui méme, et il a localement de véritables conséquences environementales

even in the most optimistic scenarios, oil sands will only be able to provide a small portion of world oil production (les than 5% of world output, or less than a quarter of US demand), making them welcome, but by no means sufficient to ensure North American self-sufficiency.
meme dans le scénario le plus optimiste, les sables bitumineux ne pourront fournir qu' une petite proportion ( moins de 5% de la production mondiale, ou moins que un quart de la demande des Etats Unis), utiles, mais en aucun cas suffisant à l'autonomie Nord Américaine


The only solution to our energy crisis is on the demand side: we must use LESS. It's possible, it's smart, and it will create local jobs. So what are we waiting for?