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First Quantum adds 1,000 jobs as Cobre Panama restart nears

Staff Writer | July 29, 2026 |

First Quantum Minerals has stepped up preparations to restart its Cobre Panama mine by beginning stockpile processing ahead of schedule and adding about 1,000 jobs.

The Canadian miner said formal negotiations with Panama over the future of one of the world’s largest copper mines are drawing closer.

First Quantum commissioned the first of three milling circuits in May, producing its first 3,216 tonnes of copper concentrate from stockpiled ore during the quarter. About 2.1 million tonnes of ore were processed, while the mine’s estimated 38-million-tonne stockpile contains about 70,000 tonnes of recoverable copper, enough to sustain roughly 12 months of processing at current rates.

The company maintained 2026 guidance of 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes of copper from stockpile processing.

“We are encouraged by the progress achieved during the quarter, notably the release of the final audit report and the formation of the inter-institutional ministerial committee to review its findings,” CEO Tristan Pascall said in the second quarter report.

“We remain ready to engage constructively with the Government of Panama to achieve a fair and durable resolution that serves the best interests of the country and its people as well as our stakeholders.”

The developments suggest momentum continues to build toward reopening Cobre Panama after nearly two years of inactivity.


Reports indicate Panama is weighing several partnership structures, including a state-owned mining company that would jointly operate the mine with First Quantum or an arrangement in which the company retains a 60% to 65% stake while the government holds the balance. Another proposal would see the government lease the operation back to First Quantum in exchange for royalties and tax revenue.

Hiring boost

The restart has also translated into a growing workforce as preparations for renewed operations continue.

Direct site employment climbed to about 3,000 by the end of June from roughly 2,350 in early April to support commissioning, maintenance and operations. Pascall told analysts on the company’s conference call the increase represents about 1,000 jobs overall, including returning employees and new hires.

The expansion follows the launch of the company’s Suma tu Talento recruitment campaign, with more than half of new employees coming from communities surrounding the mine and 17% of hires being women.

Road ahead

Cobre Panama has remained idle since late 2023, when Panama’s Supreme Court ruled First Quantum’s 20-year mining contract unconstitutional following widespread environmental and governance protests. The shutdown erased about 4.5% of Panama’s GDP, according to IMF data, removed more than 1% of global copper supply and eliminated about 40% of First Quantum’s revenue.

Since taking office in 2024, President José Raúl Mulino’s administration has authorized sales of stockpiled concentrate, restarted the mine’s power plant and completed an environmental audit that found the operation was 87.7% compliant with its environmental commitments. First Quantum has also suspended its $20 billion arbitration claim against Panama while discussions over the mine’s future continue.

Update almost triples contained metal at Selkirk Copper’s Minto mine

Blair McBride | July 30, 2026

A resource update for Selkirk Copper Mines’ (TSXV: SCMI; US-OTC: SKRKF) Minto project in Yukon more than doubles contained red metal as the First Nation-owned company prepares to release a feasibility study and eventually restart the mine. Shares rose.


The update outlines 47.8 million measured and indicated tonnes grading 0.89% copper, 0.34 gram gold per tonne and 3.2 grams silver for 940 million lb. copper, 530,000 oz. gold and about 4.8 million oz. silver, Selkirk reported Thursday.

Compared with last year’s estimate, contained measured and indicated copper increased 181%, gold 183% and silver 192%, although copper grades declined by roughly one quarter as additional lower-grade tonnes were incorporated into the resource. Minto is about 240 km northwest of Whitehorse.

The measured and indicated increases through Selkirk’s stage one drilling program “demonstrates the significant potential to grow mineable resources within the Minto mine property in a cost-effective and timely manner,” Selkrik CEO M. Colin Joudrie said in a release.
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Cuivre : la production du canadien First Quantum progresse en Zambie à mi-2026

Agence Ecofin 29 juillet 2026

En Zambie, First Quantum Minerals s’impose comme le principal contributeur du secteur cuprifère en termes de production. Ses mines de Kansanshi et Sentinel ont livré à elles seules 370 000 tonnes de cuivre en 2025, soit 41 % des 890 346 tonnes produites à l’échelle nationale.

En Zambie, First Quantum Minerals a produit un total de 184 929 tonnes de cuivre au premier semestre 2026, contre 176 116 tonnes à la même période un an plus tôt. Ce résultat issu du cumul des données opérationnelles publiées mardi 28 juillet par le groupe canadien, s’accompagne du maintien des objectifs de production fixés pour l’ensemble de l’exercice sur ses différentes mines exploitées dans le pays.

Cette progression repose sur les performances de Kansanshi et de Sentinel, les deux actifs cuprifères du groupe en Zambie. À Kansanshi, les volumes ont atteint 89 342 tonnes entre janvier et juin, selon les calculs de l’Agence Ecofin, contre 86 647 tonnes un an plus tôt. La mine de Sentinel s’est également inscrite dans une dynamique haussière, avec une production de 95 587 tonnes, contre 89 469 tonnes au premier semestre 2025.

Dans ce contexte, First Quantum Minerals maintient ses prévisions annuelles allant jusqu’à 205 000 tonnes pour Kansanshi et de 220 000 tonnes pour Sentinel. Si elles sont atteintes, ces cibles porteraient la production zambienne du groupe au-delà des 370 000 tonnes enregistrées en 2025. Pour le reste de l’année, la compagnie prévoit une augmentation continue du débit des usines ainsi que l’amélioration les taux de récupération du minerai sur les deux sites. À Sentinel, une hausse des teneurs est également attendue au second semestre.

La réalisation de ces objectifs revêt une importance particulière pour First Quantum Minerals, dont les opérations zambiennes constituent le principal moteur de son portefeuille d’actifs de cuivre. Elle le sera tout autant pour la Zambie, qui ambitionne de franchir le seuil du million de tonnes produites dès 2026. En 2025, le pays avait livré 890 346 tonnes de cuivre, dont 41 % provenaient des seules mines de First Quantum.

Panama weighs creation of state-owned miner to pave way for Cobre Panama re-opening

Reuters | July 22, 2026

Panama is considering creating a state-owned mining firm to partner ‌with Canada’s First Quantum on the re-opening of the shuttered flagship Cobre Panama copper mine, two people familiar with the development told Reuters.

The mine, one of the world’s largest, was shut down in 2023 after Panama’s Supreme Court ruled First Quantum’s 20-year-old mining contract was unconstitutional, amid widespread opposition on environmental and governance grounds.

That wiped out 4.5% of Panama’s GDP, IMF data showed, as well as more than 1% ​of global copper production and 40% of First Quantum’s revenues. Shares of First Quantum were down 1.6% on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Panama’s President Jose Mulino was elected in 2024 ​after intense public unrest over the mine. During his inaugural speech after being elected, Mulino pledged to finalize the mine shutdown after an ⁠environmental audit. “We must respect the laws, the Supreme Court ruling, and the demands of our people…” Mulino said in July 2024. Adding that the plan to open “in order to ​close definitively, safely and positively for our country will depend on the result of that environmental study.”

Two years later, facing unemployment around 10% and with copper prices near record levels, ​reopening may look more attractive.

The government has allowed the company to sell the last copper concentrate mined before the closure, restart its power plant inside the mine, and conclude an environmental audit that gave the mine a compliance score of 88%.

“It is clear that the government wants to open the mine with First Quantum,” said a person who had advised the government about the mine in the past. “But it still ​fears social unrest.”

First Quantum declined to comment. Panama’s Commerce Minister’s office did not respond to email and phone queries by Reuters.

Analysts at Royal Bank of Canada in a research ​note on Wednesday said regaining operational control of the Cobre Panama mine, which was once the biggest mine for First Quantum, would be transformational for the company.

Different proposals under consideration

The possibility of a ‌public-private partnership between ⁠a Panama-owned entity and First Quantum, giving the miner operational control of the facility, is one of a few proposals under consideration, the sources said.

Under a partnership scenario, First Quantum would have a 60% to 65% stake in the mine, with 35% to 40% owned by Panama, one of the sources said, who did not wish to be quoted as they are not authorized to speak to the media.

First Quantum would receive a higher share because of investments the company made in the mine, one of the sources said.

A revival of ​the mine would help First Quantum get ​on the road to debt recovery, as ⁠well as bringing in new sources of copper to the market that is fundamentally in short supply.

A state-owned entity could be a workaround for a Panamanian law passed in 2023 that bans new mining concessions.

The law is ambiguous regarding concessions granted to a state-owned ​entity, said one person familiar with Panama’s legal framework, adding that there is an option under Panamanian law for a state entity ​to be created for ⁠public-private partnerships.

The underlying mining concession would be owned by Panama.

Leasing option on the table

Public-private ventures are becoming a common practice in resource-rich countries that want higher control over the resources and also get social license for mining projects, with Chile and Zambia, among others, adopting such models.

A further option being weighed is leasing the mine to First Quantum, with the government receiving ⁠a royalty payment ​and collecting tax from revenue earned. It is not clear which of the options the government might choose.

In ​July, Panama’s Commerce and Industry Minister Julio Molto said the government would take its decision by the end of this year, and that Panama will have “complete sovereignty” over the mine issue.

Meanwhile First Quantum has suspended an arbitration that ​it had launched against Panama over the mine, where it was seeking compensation worth $20 billion from the country.

Fitzroy builds case for near-term Chile copper mine

Colin McClelland | July 24, 2026

Fitzroy Minerals (TSXV: FTZ)(US-OTC: FTZFF) has extended broad, shallow copper mineralization along the Tenorita trend at its Buen Retiro project in Chile as it advances towards an initial resource and prefeasibility study before production in 2028.


Highlights include hole BRT-DDH072, which cut 111.9 metres grading 0.97% copper from 21.1 metres depth, including 18 metres at 1.59% copper from 84 metres, Fitzroy said on Thursday. Hole BRT-DDH070 returned 147.7 metres grading 0.41% copper from 26.3 metres, including 47 metres at 0.88% copper from 113 metres.

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BC, Simpcw First Nation sign consent agreement for Trekor Metals’ Yellowhead copper project

Staff Writer | July 17, 2026


The Yellowhead Project has potential to be one of the most significant copper mines in North America. Credit: Taseko Mines

The Province of British Columbia and the Simpcw First Nation have entered into a consent-based agreement for the environmental assessment and review of Trekor Metals’ Yellowhead copper project in Simpcwul’ecw (Simpcw) Territory.

The agreement was signed by Simpcw Ku̓kwpi7 (Chief) George Lampreau; Tamara Davidson, Minister of Environment and Parks; Spencer Chandra Herbert, Minister of Indigenous Relations and Reconciliation; and Jagrup Brar, Minister of Mining and Critical Minerals.

Last week, Trekor Metals (TSX: TKO; NYSE American: TGB) said a Detailed Project Description for the Yellowhead project was submitted to the BC Environmental Assessment Office, providing more information about the proposed project, incorporating additional technical work and community feedback received during the early engagement Phase of the EA process.

The company also released an economic impact study evaluating the potential impact of the construction and operation phases of the Yellowhead project.

The company envisions the Yellowhead as a 90,000-tonne-per-day open pit mine that would run for 25 years, producing 178 million lb. of copper annually at cash costs of $1.90 per lb. Over the first five years, average production could reach 206 million lb. at $1.62 per pound.

Last year, the company released a technical report that more than doubled the value of the project. CEO Stuart McDonald said at the time it “establishes Yellowhead as a world-class copper project in a tier one jurisdiction,” with potential to become one of the largest on the continent.

“This marks the first time Simpcw has applied our consent process to a major project, and it is an important milestone for our Nation,” Simpcw Chief Lampreau said in a statement.

“This agreement advances the exercise of Simpcw’s governance and decision-making responsibilities, while strengthening our relationships with the Province and project proponents,” Lampreau said. “This agreement is not just about one project — it is about establishing how decisions on new mining projects will be made in our territory going forward, in a way that respects Simpcw’s governance, our people and our responsibilities to future generations.”

“Since 2024, Trekor has been advancing the Yellowhead project through the Simpcw process, an Indigenous-led, consent-based decision-making model, and in 2025 initiated the B.C. environmental assessment process,” McDonald said in Thursday’s statement. “We believe the agreement announced today can contribute to a more co-ordinated, efficient and transparent assessment process that benefits the Yellowhead project and all people in British Columbia.”

BHP seeks to restart Cerro Colorado mine with $1.5B investment

Staff Writer | July 2, 2026 |


Cerro Colorado mine in Chile. (Image by Zwansaurio | Flickr Commons)

BHP (ASX: BHP) has begun the process to reopen the Cerro Colorado copper mine in Chile, targeting an investment of $1.5 billion to keep the operation running for 20 years.

On Wednesday, the Australian miner said it has applied for a new environmental permit for Cerro Colorado. Located in the Atacama Desert, the mine is part of BHP’s Pampa Norte division in northern Chile that also includes the Spence operation.

The copper mine has been closed since late 2023 after it was denied its water permit following protests by local communities. Metals& Mining

In an attempt to restart the operation, BHP said it would explore the use of leaching technologies and desalinated water. Under its application, it laid out plans to use treated wastewater transported through a pipeline of more than 100 km from the municipality of Alto Hospicio to the mine site.

This initiative, according to the company, would enable the mine to run for 20 years. Its total cost is estimated at $1.5 billion.

BHP had previously planned to reboot the Cerro Colorado operation by the end of this decade. The mine represents a small part of its Chilean portfolio, in comparison to the giant Escondida mine and the nearby Spence growth project.

Government of Canada to provide $352m for Red Chris project
The Red Chris mine operates as a JV, with Newmont operating and holding 70% and Imperial Metals holding 30%.

Shree Mishra July 3, 2026

mperial Metals has announced that the Government of Canada will provide C$500m ($352.2m) to support the Red Chris Block Cave project in British Columbia (BC).

The funding is set to be delivered through the Canada-British Columbia Co-operative Prosperity Agreement.

The Red Chris mine is operated as a joint venture (JV) with Newmont, which has a 70% interest and acts as the operator, and Imperial Metals, holding 30%.


This federal commitment will help advance the proposed block cave copper-gold operation through the JV’s internal approval process towards a final investment decision.

Newmont is currently completing a definitive feasibility study for the project.

The proposed block cave development could extend the Red Chris mine’s operational life by around 14 years.

The project is also expected to create more than 1,800 jobs during construction and maintain an estimated workforce of 1,500 during peak operations.

Located in BC’s Golden Triangle, Red Chris began production in 2015.

In the 2023 financial year, it produced 18,000t of copper.

Current reserves include 3.6 million ounces (moz) of gold and 900,000t of copper, with resources of 4.4moz of gold and 1.3 million tonnes of copper.

The operation has multi-decade production potential, with feasibility and permitting work under way for the block cave expansion.

Last month, Newmont secured key regulatory approvals from the Province of British Columbia for the Red Chris Block Cave project.

These approvals include an amended Environmental Assessment Certificate, obtained in collaboration with the Tahltan Nation, as well as an amended Mines Act permit.

Vizsla Copper begins 10,000m drilling at Alaska Palmer VMS project
Initial drilling targets high-grade copper mineralisation as Vizsla Copper advances a multi-year exploration strategy.

June 22, 2026
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La Pologne lance le projet de «Vallée du cuivre»

RFI le : 25/06/2026 Par : Agnieszka Kumor

On s'intéresse aujourd'hui à une « Vallée du cuivre » située dans l'ouest de la Pologne. Un giga-projet minier, qui prévoit jusqu'à 800 000 tonnes de cuivre par an, a été validé par le gouvernement de Donald Tusk. Un investissement stratégique très important pour Varsovie. En quoi consiste ce projet ?

Il s'agit de créer tout un écosystème industriel autour de la production de cuivre et d'argent. Cela afin de permettre au géant du cuivre polonais, KGHM Polska Miedz SA, de porter sa production à plus du double de son niveau actuel.

L'ambition de devenir un fournisseur essentiel de cuivre

Entreprise publique, KGHM produit déjà près de 400 000 tonnes de cuivre par an, ce qui en fait le premier producteur de cuivre de l'Union européenne. Mais loin derrière les champions mondiaux de cuivre que sont le Chili et le Pérou. L'ambition du gouvernement polonais est de faire de son pays un fournisseur essentiel de ce métal d'avenir.

Le métal stratégique

Et ce alors que la demande mondiale de cuivre ne cesse d'augmenter. Dans son étude publiée en début d'année, S&P Global Energy souligne le rôle essentiel du cuivre à l'ère de l'intelligence artificielle. La demande de cuivre devrait passer de 28 millions de tonnes en 2025 à 42 millions de tonnes en 2040. Électrification, numérisation, centres de données ont tous besoin de ce métal stratégique. La Pologne a la possibilité d'accroître ses capacités de production de cuivre et d'argent grâce aux nouvelles mines que prévoit d'ouvrir dans ce pays de l'Europe centrale la société canadienne Lumina Metals Corp.

Une nouvelle Silicon Valley

Lumina est ce que l'on appelle une société minière junior. Encore au stade d'exploration, elle finance ses investissements par des levées de fonds en Bourse, sans avoir encore entamé la production. Lumina est présente en Pologne depuis une quinzaine d'années. Cette entreprise souhaite développer ses projets à proximité des mines et des fonderies existantes de KGHM pour les approvisionner en cuivre extrait de ses gisements. 6,4 milliards de dollars d'investissements seront nécessaires pour réaliser ce projet.

Cette « Vallée du cuivre » ferait partie d'un vaste plan gouvernemental réunissant industrie, matières premières, énergie et recherche. Une sorte de Silicon Valley au cœur de l'Europe !

Cuivre : le britannique Tertiary Minerals avance vers son 1er gisement en Zambie

Agence Ecofin 25 juin 2026

Deuxième producteur africain de cuivre, la Zambie veut porter sa production à 3 millions de tonnes par an d’ici 2031. Si plusieurs projets soutiennent déjà cette ambition, d’autres, encore à un stade précoce, pourraient encore contribuer à l’expansion du secteur sur le long terme.

Tertiary Minerals, junior minière cotée à la bourse AIM de Londres, a annoncé jeudi 25 juin le lancement d’un nouveau programme de forage sur son projet de cuivre et argent Mushima North en Zambie. Les investissements prévus dans ce cadre visent à soutenir son objectif de découvrir un premier gisement sur cet actif d’exploration.

Dans le détail, les travaux porteront principalement sur la cible A1, le principal prospect identifié sur le permis. Au total, environ 4 000 mètres de forage sont prévus, combinant des tests d’extension de la minéralisation et des forages de densification, en vue d’étayer une première estimation de ressources. La société évalue le potentiel de découverte entre 15 et 30 millions de tonnes, avec une teneur moyenne comprise entre 40 et 60 g/t d’équivalent argent, reflétant la contribution combinée du cuivre et de l’argent.

« Nous sommes très enthousiastes à l’idée de reprendre les forages sur la cible A1, où nous avons actuellement identifié une cible d’exploration [selon la norme JORC] pouvant atteindre 58 millions d’onces d’équivalent argent. Il s’agit du plus vaste programme de forage jamais entrepris par la société en Zambie ; il vise non seulement à étayer l’estimation des ressources minérales sur la cible A1, mais aussi à tester les extensions potentielles de la minéralisation », a déclaré Richard Belcher, DG de Tertiary.

Pour une junior comme Tertiary Minerals, spécialisée dans l’exploration minière, la confirmation d’un premier gisement constitue généralement une étape décisive. L’enjeu est d’autant plus important que toute nouvelle découverte liée au cuivre intervient dans un contexte marqué par les anticipations d’une possible pénurie à moyen terme, liée à la hausse des besoins de la transition énergétique.

Pour autant, cela ne constitue encore que les prémices d’une éventuelle exploitation. La mise en production d’un gisement suppose en effet une progression par étapes, allant de l’accroissement des ressources à leur conversion en réserves exploitables, un processus qui peut s’étaler sur plusieurs années.

Reste désormais à savoir si cette première avancée sera confirmée sur le terrain à travers les travaux en cours. Aucun calendrier n’a, à ce stade, été communiqué concernant la publication d’une première estimation de ressources. Pour la Zambie, dont le cuivre représente le principal produit d’exportation, ces développements restent à suivre de près.

Poland bets on copper boom as Lumina eyes new mines

Staff Writer | June 16, 2026

Poland could more than double its copper production through planned mines by Canada’s Lumina Metals (TSX: LMCU), bolstering the country’s ambitions to become a leading supplier of a metal critical to electrification and industrial growth.
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Lumina plans to develop projects near KGHM’s existing mines and smelters, requiring a combined $6.4 billion investment. The company projects average annual copper-equivalent production of 390,000 tonnes during the first decade of operation, matching KGHM’s current annual copper output in Poland. The country is already the European Union’s largest copper producer through KGHM’s operations.

Lumina CEO Jordan Pandoff said further tax reform will be needed to attract investment in a new generation of mines. While the government has introduced some relief measures, he said the current copper tax regime continues to discourage higher production levels.
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Nowa Sól covers 120 sq. km in Poland’s Northern Copper Belt near KGHM’s mining and processing operations. Since discovering the deposit in 2014, Lumina has completed more than 51,000 metres of drilling and outlined a measured and indicated resource of 604 million tonnes grading 1.24% copper and 38 g/t silver. The company describes the project as one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper and silver deposits.

BHP’s Vicuna unveils $18 billion copper investment in Argentina

Reuters | February 16, 2026 |

Miner Vicuna Corp, controlled by Australia’s BHP and Canada’s Lundin Mining, announced on Monday an $18 billion multi-year investment plan to develop copper, gold, and silver mining projects in northern Argentina.

The initial investment in its Josemaria and Filo del Sol projects in the province of San Juan will be $7 billion with capital deployment scheduled from 2027 until production begins in 2030, Vicuna said in a statement.

The project is forecast to average 395,000 tons of copper, 711,000 ounces of gold, and 22.2 million ounces of silver annually over its first 25 years.

Output during the first decade is projected at approximately 2.5 million tons of copper, 5.5 million ounces of gold, and 214 million ounces of silver.

Development of the Josemaria and Filo del Sol mining projects will be carried out in three stages. The first stage will be focused on the Josemaria deposit, with the latter two focused on Filo del Sol.

Argentina approves $9.7B Vicuna mine development for tax break scheme

Reuters | June 16, 2026 |


Credit: Vicuña Corp.

Argentina approved the $9.7 billion Vicuna copper project for the country’s large investment tax mechanism, Economy Minister Luis Caputo said on Tuesday.

The mine, to be operated by Australia’s BHP and Canada’s Lundin Mining, is set to be Argentina’s largest ever mining development and one of the world’s five largest copper mines. Investment in the project could reach $18 billion, with the mine projected to generate exports of more than $2.6 billion a year, Caputo said.

Eldorado produces first copper concentrate at Canada’s McIlvenna Bay
The company’s operational team is currently focusing on scaling up production towards a nameplate capacity of 4,900tpd.

Shree Mishra June 9, 2026

Eldorado Gold has produced the initial copper concentrate from its wholly owned McIlvenna Bay Project in east-central Saskatchewan, Canada.

The company stated that this development marks a new addition to its portfolio and expands its operating presence in Canada.

According to Eldorado Gold, the processing plant at McIlvenna Bay recently completed wet commissioning, and hot commissioning led to the first output of copper concentrate on 7 June 2026.

The company’s operational team is currently focusing on scaling up production towards a nameplate capacity of 4,900 tonnes per day (tpd).

Activities during this ramp-up include optimisation of the flotation circuit, refining reagent use, finishing the paste plant and completing related underground infrastructure.

Commercial production at the site is expected in the third quarter of 2026 (Q3 2026).
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Retour sur investissement-L'IA pourrait ne pas être le moteur de la demande que les optimistes du cuivre espèrent : Andy Home

Reuters •03/06/2026 Les opinions exprimées ici sont celles de l'auteur, chroniqueur pour Reuters.par Andy Home

De l'âge du bronze à l'ère de l'IA, le cuivre est à nouveau au cœur de la dernière grande vague d'investissements.

La raison est simple. Les centres de données ont besoin de beaucoup de câblage, de refroidissement et d'électricité, ce qui signifie qu'ils ont besoin de beaucoup de cuivre. Les centres de données d'IA en ont besoin d'encore plus.

Un centre de données dédié à la cryptographie nécessite 21 tonnes de cuivre par mégawatt installé, tandis qu'un centre de données de formation à l'IA en Chine a une intensité en cuivre de 47 tonnes, selon S&P Global Market Intelligence.

L'escalade de la course mondiale à l'IA va sans aucun doute stimuler la demande en cuivre. Mais dans quelle mesure?

S&P Global prévoit que la consommation dans les centres de données et les infrastructures associées passera de 1,1 million de tonnes en 2025 à 2,5 millions de tonnes en 2040.

Cette prévision comporte toutefois de nombreuses réserves.

La demande pourrait atteindre 2,7 millions de tonnes ou descendre jusqu'à 1,7 million, selon l'interaction de multiples variables en constante évolution.

Comme le soulignent les auteurs de « Copper in the Age of AI » , “cette fourchette étendue met en évidence à la fois l’incertitude et l’ampleur du défi à venir”.

LE DÉCALAGE ENTRE L'OFFRE ET LA DEMANDE

L'une des variables clés pour évaluer la demande probable en cuivre est l'ampleur de l'expansion des centres de données dédiés à l'IA.

Selon une étude publiée par l’Oxford Smith School et le courtier financier Marex Group 8UU.F , une grande partie des nouveaux mégawatts de capacité de calcul IA annoncés ne sont que des “bragawatts”.

Alors que les médias et les marchés anticipent et intègrent dans leurs prix une croissance exponentielle rapide des infrastructures d’IA, le résultat sera probablement “un déploiement retardé, irrégulier et limité par les contraintes physiques”.

Le principal obstacle est la connectivité au réseau électrique. Un centre de données peut être construit en 18 à 24 mois, mais le délai d'attente moyen aux États-Unis pour un raccordement au réseau était de quatre ans entre 2018 et 2023.

Cela suppose qu’il y ait suffisamment d’électricité pour commencer.

L'Irlande a construit tellement de centres de données qu'en 2021, la part du secteur dans la consommation énergétique nationale avait dépassé les 20 %, menaçant de submerger le système énergétique du pays.

L'opérateur du réseau irlandais a imposé un moratoire de facto de quatre ans sur les nouvelles demandes, qui vient tout juste d'être levé, mais assorti de nouvelles conditions strictes .

Ajoutez à cela les longs délais d'approvisionnement pour les équipements essentiels tels que les transformateurs et la pénurie de main-d'œuvre spécialisée, et vous obtenez un écart croissant entre la capacité de calcul IA annoncée et celle réellement fournie, selon l'étude de Smith.

Le cuivre, prévient-elle, risque de passer à travers les mailles du filet.

PLUS DE PUISSANCE, MOINS DE CUIVRE

Quantifier la quantité de cuivre utilisée dans les centres de données est également un objectif en constante évolution.

La bataille pour la suprématie en matière d'IA est une question de puissance de calcul, et à mesure que les puces évoluent, l'architecture de la conception des racks et du câblage doit suivre le mouvement.

S&P Global note qu'un passage du cuivre à la fibreoptique est déjà en cours pour le câblage d'interconnexion entre les racks de processeurs.

Cela pourrait entraîner une baisse de la consommation de cuivre dans les centres de données de 4 à 5 tonnes par mégawatt installé, ce qui n'est pas négligeable compte tenu des 30 à 40 tonnes généralement déployées dans les centres de données non cryptographiques.

Mais plus fondamentalement, la société de puces Nvidia affirme que même le cuivre aura du mal à offrir la faible latence et la bande passante élevée requises par les centres d'IA de nouvelle génération.

L'utilisation de basses tensions traditionnelles nécessiterait “un volume insoutenable de câblage en cuivre”.

Nvidia propose une transition vers 800 volts, ce qui signifie qu’un câble de même section peut transporter 157 % de puissance en plus. Une configuration plus simple implique également moins de conducteurs en cuivre et des connecteurs plus petits.

La réduction de l'utilisation du cuivre est à la fois une question de coût et, selon l'entreprise, une voie essentielle vers une puissance de rack toujours croissante.

Les fervents défenseurs du cuivre affirment que la pénurie de cuivre qui se profile est telle que le métal pourrait lui-même devenir un goulot d'étranglement dans le déploiement des capacités d'IA.
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