La production pétroliére des USA

[tita]

Tel que je l’ai compris, l’EIA s’attend a un plateau jusqu’en 2027.
Ca se compliquera ensuite.

Oui, d'après le STEO, la production US atteindrait un maximum de 13.5 Mb/j en avril 2026, avant de diminuer par la suite.

[alain2908]

Article concordant chez reuters
Si les prix ne bougent pas, la production va baisser.

Sliding US rig count outpaces efficiency gains, threatening onshore oil output
By Georgina Mccartney
August 5, 202511:06 AM GMT+2Updated August 5, 2025



Oil-rich shale region of the Permian Basin in Texas
A drone view of a pump jack and drilling rig south of Midland, Texas, U.S. June 11, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/ File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
Summary
Companies
Falling U.S. rig count threat to oil production
Lower 48 oil production expected to fall next year, analysts say
Permian rig count to fall below models for steady output
Analysts model Permian rig count at 240-260 for steady output
HOUSTON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - The falling number of oil and gas rigs deployed across the United States is reaching a level that would indicate onshore crude output from the world's top producer could fall in early 2026.
U.S. energy companies are producing record amounts of oil, much of it from onshore shale fields. New techniques and technology, like longer lateral wells, automation and more powerful equipment, have driven productivity gains across the industry that have allowed oil companies to pump more with fewer rigs and less capital.
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But the number of rigs working in U.S. shale fields has almost fallen so low - and is projected to keep falling - that those improvements will not be enough to keep onshore U.S. production rising, or even steady in some basins, analysts say.
The anticipated decline comes as U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to raise oil and gas output, and as OPEC+ lifts its production targets in an attempt to take back market share from the U.S. and other rival producers.
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In April 2019, the last time over 1,000 rigs were consistently deployed across the U.S., oil output stood at 12.14 million barrels per day (bpd). Today, there are just 540 rigs in operation, while output has jumped to some 13.5 million bpd.
Those close to the industry say that balance is fast approaching a tipping point, with analysts forecasting the rig count to fall further and U.S. onshore production to subsequently decline next year and into 2027.
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Wood Mackenzie expects lower 48 oil production to fall next year, with declines into 2027 as operators drop rigs in response to persistently low oil prices.
Wood Mackenzie expects lower 48 oil production to fall next year, with declines into 2027 as operators drop rigs in response to persistently low oil prices.
Lower 48 oil output is expected to fall by 200,000 bpd next year, followed by a further decline of 130,000 bpd in 2027, as operators drop rigs in response to persistently low oil prices, Wood Mackenzie analysts said.
At the current rig count of 540, energy analytics firm, Novi Labs forecasts a 400,000 bpd drop in lower 48 production by the end of next year, with losses upwards of 200,000 bpd within the first few months of 2026.
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The U.S. Energy Information Administration in July also said it expects recent declines in rig counts and well completions to continue, pointing to lower crude prices.
ALL EYES ON THE PERMIAN

The recent decline in oil prices has prompted companies to shed rigs at an elevated rate. In the Permian basin - the largest U.S. oil field, spanning from Texas to New Mexico - some 24 rigs were dropped over a ten-week period beginning in May, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes. During that period, prices plunged as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries accelerated plans to increase output.

Companies have been using newer, more efficient oil rigs, with improvements like autonomous drilling capabilities, more powerful horsepower, and technology that enables them to move without being taken down and rebuilt.
"Right now virtually all operating rigs are the most efficient and highly upgraded rigs available. Drillers saw big efficiency gains because they upgraded to a bigger rig but there are no bigger rigs left to upgrade to," said Paul Mosvold, president and COO of Scandrill, whose company has seven rigs in the Haynesville and four in the Permian.
"Now it is incremental and tweaking, whereas before it was a wholesale upgrade. Those things aren’t going to make the level of efficiency gains we’ve seen in the last few years," Mosvold added.
Energy consultancies have similar estimates for the number of rigs needed to keep production steady in the Permian Basin, ranging between 240 and 260.
The Permian rig count last fell by one in the week to August 1, to 259, the lowest since September 2021, according to Baker Hughes (BKR.O), opens new tab.
Graph shows the number of rigs operating in the Permian from late September 2021 to late July 2025, shows rig count in the Permian basin sank to a near four-year low in late July 2025.
Graph shows the number of rigs operating in the Permian from late September 2021 to late July 2025, shows rig count in the Permian basin sank to a near four-year low in late July 2025.
"We have seen a 25% improvement over the last few years in rig efficiency, but the rig count has fallen over 30% over that same period. Put simply, the rig count declines have begun to outpace drilling efficiency gains," said Brandon Myers, head of research at Novi Labs.
"This is a recent development," he added.
Market intelligence firm Energy Aspects expects the Permian rig count to continue falling, slipping below its own modeled 255 threshold for steady production, early next year. Consultancy Wood Mackenzie sees that basin's rig count falling to 245 in early 2026 as prices fall due to higher OPEC+ output.
EFFICIENCY GAINS AND WELL PRODUCTIVITY

The Permian has been at the heart of the U.S. shale revolution, propelling the country to the top spot in the league of global oil producers. Output there is expected to reach 6.58 million bpd this month, more than triple what it produced a decade ago in August 2015, according to the EIA.
In the Permian's Midland basin, oil companies have raised the number of feet drilled per month per rig, or drilling efficiency, by 25% since the first quarter of 2023, according to Novi Labs. In 2024 around 40% of laterals in Midland were over 2.5 miles long, compared with 15% in 2021.
Despite improvements to drilling technologies, oil wells in the Permian basin are becoming less productive as operators have drilled through a lot of the best rock. Those less productive wells cost more to drill and are producing more unwanted byproducts such as gas and water, and less oil.
The Permian's Delaware and Midland sub-basins have seen oil per foot drilled fall 8% so far in 2025 compared with last year's average, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a July note.
"If the rig count drops don't turn around soon, we're going to see U.S. production declines well into 2026, including in the Permian basin," said Energy Aspects analyst Jesse Jones. He anticipates Permian production, which currently stands at 6.55 million bpd, to fall by 150,000 bpd to 6.25 million bpd in 2026, due to fewer rigs and completions as well as a degradation in well productivity.
Declines in oil production as a result of a falling rig count will take six to nine months to show, due to the time it takes to drill and complete wells, analysts said.
Wood Mackenzie sees Permian output growth flattening in 2026, at 6.55 million barrels per day.
Wood Mackenzie sees Permian output growth flattening in 2026, at 6.55 million barrels per day.
Novi Labs expects Permian production will fall slightly by the end of the year, before dipping into the sub-6.5 million bpd range in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie sees Permian output growth flattening in 2026 at 6.55 million bpd. The EIA projects output to average 6.53 million bpd in 2025, before edging down to 6.5 million bpd in 2026.
"In 2020, when the rig count fell, operators drilled the best rock they were ever going to have. That high-quality inventory doesn't exist in that quantity anymore, and operators won't be able to do that again to the same degree," said Novi Labs' Myers.
Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, additional reporting by Arathy Somasekhar; Editing by Liz Hampton

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 025-08-05/

[mobar]

Article concordant chez reuters
Si les prix ne bougent pas, la production va baisser.

C’est quoi cette nouvelle connerie?

Ce ne sont pas les prix qui determinent la production, mais les ecarts entre consommation et production, c’est a dire la rarete ou l’excedent d’un produit sur le marche qui determinent le prix de ce produit

[GillesH38]

c'est les deux, c'est une rétroaction, Mobar.

[tita]

Derniers chiffres mensuels de l'EIA pour la production de juin dernier.

La production a augmenté, passant de 13'447 kb/j à 13'580 kb/j, soit une augmentation de 133 kb/j. La production offshore a augmenté de 67 kb/j à 1915 kb/j ce qui fait que la production onshore a augmenté de 66 kb/j. Sur les 5 derniers mois, la production onshore a augmenté de 326 kb/j. Les estimations hebdomadaires étaient à 13'432 kb/j, une sous-estimation de 148 kb/J.

Sur les 12 derniers mois (juin. 2024-juin. 2025), la production US a augmenté de 328 kb/j.

Bon, vu comme ça, les chiffres donnent l'impression d'un petit rebond de la production US. On a une nouvelle production record. Mais on reste en vrai sur le plateau, le précédent record étant d'octobre 2024 à 13'530 kb/j, 50kb/j de différence.. La production offshore atteint un niveau qui n'avait plus été atteint depuis un moment (octobre 2023), mais l'offshore navigue entre 1'800 et 2'000 kb/j depuis juillet 2018... On peut aussi noter que ce rapport fait une correction profonde des donnée, avec des ajustement qui remontent à janvier 2015.

Le prochain rapport mensuel, d'après les rapports hebdomadaires, devrait montrer une baisse de la prod.

[energy_isere]

Trump va feter ça :

USA Hits New Crude Oil Production Record

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff | Thursday, September 04, 2025 |

The U.S. hit a new crude oil production record recently, a data page on the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) website showed.

The data page - which displays monthly U.S. field production of crude oil, was last updated on August 29, and includes data from January 1920 to June 2025 - revealed that monthly U.S. field production of crude oil averaged 13.58 million barrels per day in June.

This figure is the highest in the data set, with the second highest figure coming in October 2024, at 13.530 million barrels per day. The third highest figure in the data set was seen in April this year, at 13.466 million barrels per day.

Monthly U.S. field production of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or more on 21 occasions, according to the data page. Four of these were seen in 2023, 11 came in 2024, and six were in 2025, the data page highlighted.

A data page on the EIA site showing annual U.S. field production of crude oil, which was also last updated on August 29 and which includes data from 1859 to 2024, showed that annual U.S. field production of crude oil averaged 13.235 million barrels per day in 2024. Prior to this, annual U.S. field production of crude oil had never averaged 13 million barrels per day or more, the data revealed. The closest it came to an annual average of 13 million barrels per day was in 2023, at 12.943 million barrels per day, the data showed.

In a market analysis sent to Rigzone recently, Antonio Di Giacomo, Financial Markets Analyst for LATAM at XS, noted that, “in June, the United States reached a new all-time high in crude oil production, hitting 13.58 million barrels per day”.

“This milestone was primarily driven by increases in Texas, New Mexico, and the Gulf of Mexico[/America] consolidating the country’s position as the world’s largest crude oil producer,” Di Giacomo added.

“The surge reflects the resilience of the U.S. energy sector, despite challenges to investment and fluctuations in international oil prices,” Di Giacomo went on to state.

“Looking ahead, analysts expect U.S. energy production to remain strong, though risks remain linked to international price volatility, Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions, and investments in clean energy,” the Financial Markets Analyst for LATAM at XS continued.

Rigzone contacted the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for comment on Di Giacomo’s statement.

In response, a DOE spokesperson told Rigzone, “the Department of Energy is executing a bold, pro-growth agenda to strengthen the resilience and security of U.S. energy infrastructure, expand domestic production, and lower costs for American families”.

“Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, the United States is more energy dominant than ever - as shown by the record U.S. crude oil production achieved earlier this year and the EIA’s short term projections of even higher all-time production by December 2025,” the spokesperson added.

“While long-term forecasts are often revised, the reality is evident - America is leading the way in energy production by cutting red tape and unleashing affordable, abundant, and reliable global supply of oil and gasoline, delivering on the President’s promise to put the American people first,” the spokesperson continued.

At the time of writing, the API has not responded to Rigzone.

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on August 12, the EIA said it “expect[s] increases in well productivity will push U.S. crude oil production to an all-time high near 13.6 million barrels per day in December 2025”.

The EIA increased its U.S. crude oil production forecast for the whole of 2025 in that STEO. The organization projected in its August STEO that U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, will average 13.41 million barrels per day this year. In its previous STEO, which was released in July, the EIA projected that the country’s crude oil output, including lease condensate, would average 13.37 million barrels per day in 2025.

The EIA forecast in its latest STEO that 11.15 million barrels per day of the projected total figure of 13.41 million barrels per day will come from Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America.

Of this 11.15 million barrel per day figure, 6.53 million barrels per day will come from the Permian region, 1.18 million barrels per day will come from the Bakken region, 1.13 million barrels per day will come from the Eagle Ford region, 0.19 million barrels per day will come from the Appalachian region, 0.03 will come from the Haynesville region, and 2.09 million barrels per day will come from the rest of the Lower 48 states, the EIA projected in the STEO.

The EIA expects the Federal Gulf of America to produce 1.83 million barrels per day of the total 2025 figure and Alaska to produce 0.43 million barrels per day of this year’s total U.S. crude oil production figure, the August STEO showed.

According to the Energy Institute’s (EI) latest statistical review of world energy report, which was published earlier this year, the U.S. was the world’s top producer of crude oil and condensate in 2024 with 13.194 million barrels per day.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/usa_hits_n ... 1-article/