Synthèse des dates prévisionnelles de peak

[toto]

Il est certain que le pic de production du pétrole au niveau mondial n'est pas le même pour chaque état.
Certains pays l'ont déjà passé, d'autres sont en plein dedans.
Nous, comme d'hab, on est privilégié. On a 5 mnutes.

[Wolfric]

Je suggère d'aller jeter un coup d'oeil à l'article du LEAP 2020 que j'ai mis dans la section presse.

Ils donnent une assez bonne appréciation de ce que l'économie en général nous amène.

[mahiahi]

Il est certain que le pic de production du pétrole au niveau mondial n'est pas le même pour chaque état.

Faudrait savoir!
Tu ne confonds pas avec le pic de consommation?

[toto]

Tout à fait, c'est bien beau de demander aux autres d'être rigoureux quand on ne l'est pas soi-même.
Mea culpa.

Ce que je voulais dire: la production pétrolière mondiale n'est pas répartie équitablement entre tous les pays. Elle a beau continuer à augmenter, certains pays diminuent leur consommation. Pour eux, c'est comme si le PO était passé.

[mahiahi]

Oui, ça rejoint mon hypothèse de fractures perlées (par pays, secteur économique, classe sociale...)

[toto]

Effectivement, vous en avez déjà parlé. Je me souviens d'un post de Gilles qui parlait de l'augmentation de consommation de certains pays, plus forte que l'augmentation de consommation mondiale, ce qui voulait dire que d'autres pays avaient vu leur consommation chuter.
Ce n'était pas encore notre tour, ce sera pour demain.

[energy_isere]

Il y a actuellement une grosse conférence internationale aux USA, prés de Los Angeles avec 6000 participants qui sont des géologues pour le pétrole.

Ils parlent entre autre sujet, du Peak Oil, evidemment.

Mail ils annoncent plutot du 2020 pour la date .

source : http://www.presstelegram.com/business/ci_5587816

C'est organisé par l' AAPG = American Association of Petroleum Geologist
dont voici le site : http://www.aapg.org/

Oil peak predicted for year 2020
Petroleum experts present their findings at gathering.

Article Launched: 04/04/2007

An estimated 6,000 geologists from around the world attended the American Association of Petroleum Geologists event in Long Beach on Tuesday. (Jeff Gritchen / Press-Telegram)LONG BEACH -

Development of the globe's remaining untapped oil reserves will push world production to its ultimate peak as early as 2020, before a long, slow decline begins near mid-century, petroleum experts predicted Tuesday.
Peak production levels, estimated to reach 950 million barrels daily, are expected to last between 20 and 30 years before gradually tapering off, giving economies across the globe a final window of opportunity to begin transitioning to alternative energy sources or face increasingly fierce competition for the fossil fuel, authorities said at the annual American Association of Petroleum Geologists convention in Long Beach.

"The peak in world oil production is not imminent, but is nevertheless foreseeable," said Richard Nehring, an independent petroleum geologist who addressed the conference Tuesday. "Ultimately, world oil production decline will be inescapable in the latter half of the 21st century."

The estimation comes in the wake of a global conference held last November in Colorado, where petroleum geologists representing every oil-producing region of the world predicted mankind's remaining oil supplies.

They noted that while it took 140 years to consume the world's first
trillion barrels of oil, the next trillion will be used within 30 years.
"We're using up resources at a rapid pace," Nehring noted. "World oil production will reach a peak plateau within 15 to 25 years primarily because current world oil consumption is using up the world's oil resources at a rapid rate."

Fueled in part by rapidly expanding economies in India and China, global consumption will push production levels ever higher despite growing conservation efforts elsewhere, officials said.

New and emerging oil reserves in the Arctic, off the coasts of western Africa and Brazil, in Canada, and around Greenland, among other locations, will help offset declining production levels in the coming decades.

To meet expected demand, production needs to rachet up by at least 5 million barrels daily, experts said.

One potentially massive untapped reserve lies off California's coast, but restrictions on new drilling have hampered exploration in recent decades.

Analysts believe any local deep-water reserves may ultimately be tapped if prices rise high enough.

"It's probably going to be a resource for our children, if it's there," said Long Beach Gas and Oil Geologist John Jepson. "It's price-dependent. The price has to be conducive to match the high cost of production in deep-water areas."

Future growth in production will also depend heavily on recovery of oil from existing fields, a technique that has increased in recent years due to technological breakthroughs and investment, said Ron Charpentier of the U.S. Geological Survey.

In the Long Beach/Signal Hill area, for example, the roughly 40,000 barrels produced daily are extracted by pumping water into old wells and flushing out small pockets of the fossil fuel trapped deep underground.

This process, begun in the 1960s, has extended the oil field's production long beyond original estimates.

"We only get about 3 percent oil out of all the fluid we put in the ground," Jepson said. "But we estimate only about 35 percent of the (local) oil field has been produced so far, so there's still a lot ... to be tapped."

The same holds true across the Los Angeles basin, a region boasting three oil fields that have produced more than 1 billion barrels each since the 1920s, including the Wilmington Field encompassing Long Beach, Signal Hill and the harbor complex.

While several major untapped oil reserves remain across the world, future exploration may be constrained by prohibition on access, wars and civil unrest and insufficient investment in existing oil fields.

California, the nation's largest oil consumer, will continue depending heavily on oil from Alaska, Venezuela and Mexico in coming decades as in-state production stays flat or declines even while the population grows, Nehring said.

Increasing production from regions of northern Alberta, Canada, may help drive down prices in the U.S. Midwest by increasing supplies. Currently, the region relies heavily on Gulf of Mexico oil.

The conference brought together an estimated 6,000 petroleum geologists from across the globe whose job it is to find oil.

[Tiennel]

Voilà qui ressemble déjà un peu plus à une communauté scientifique

[energy_isere]

energy bulletin reparle de cette conférence de l' AAPG :

The looming oil crisis could arrive uncomfortably soon

The world's production of oil will peak, everyone agrees. Sometime in the coming decades, the amazing machinery of oil production that doubled world oil output every decade for a century will sputter. Output will stop rising, even as demand continues to grow. The question is when.

Forecasts of peak oil production have ranged from Thanksgiving weekend 2005 to somewhere beyond 2050. But at the annual meeting of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) in Long Beach, California, early this month, the latest answer emerged: World oil production could stop growing as early as 2020--too soon to avoid a crisis--or it could hold off until 2040. "The peak in world oil production is not imminent," oil information analyst Richard Nehring of Nehring Associates in Colorado Springs, Colorado, said at the meeting, but it is "nevertheless foreseeable."

Predictions of the timing of peak oil have been all over the map (Science, 18 November 2005, p. 1106). So-called peakists favor gauging future production by judging how much oil Earth still holds and how much has already been produced. They come up with a peak in the next few years, certainly before 2020. At the other extreme, major oil companies draw on in-house expertise about how much oil remains and how fast it will be produced. They see no end to rising production as far out as they look, usually not beyond 2030.

Nehring took a different tack, in two ways. First, he conducted an informal survey of experts by organizing a meeting, a prestigious Hedberg Conference, under the auspices of AAPG last November and inviting 75 experts from 19 countries to consider the world's oil resources. There he pressed them for their best estimates of everything from how much oil might be left to discover to how much might be wrung from existing oil fields and how much might come from unconventional sources such as Canadian tar sands.

From the meeting's discussions, Nehring came up with low, medium, and high estimates of all the oil likely ever to be produced. But as he said at the meeting, the ultimate resource is not the only constraint. Politics and social unrest can limit how fast those resources can be exploited, as is happening today in Venezuela, Iraq, and Nigeria. And technological challenges, as in the still-icebound Arctic, can slow extraction as well.

So for his second innovation, Nehring created three scenarios with successively higher peaks beginning in 2020, 2030, and 2040. He then compared the amount of effort it would take to achieve each scenario with the world oil industry's past performance. "The only scenario we're quite sure of is the low one" producing a 2020 peak, he says. Conference participants were confident that at least the low estimate of ultimate oil resource is actually out there, he says. And the world oil industry has managed to add the needed production capacity as fast as a 2020 peak would require.

Holding the peak off until 2040, however, would require both a high--and much less certain--total oil resource and adding more production each year than ever before, despite having already produced the world's most easily extractable oil. "We can't behave now like we're going to have the high scenario," Nehring concludes.

Nehring is getting some attention but not many converts. "Richard did a good service in holding this Hedberg Conference," says oil assessment specialist Donald Gautier of the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, California. But there's so much uncertainty, Gautier says, from when Arctic ice might melt out of the way to when needed new technology can be developed, that predicting the peak may not be worthwhile. A decade or so could tell.

source : http://www.energybulletin.net/28886.html

[Chrisaiki]

Je ne sais pas si ce lien a été publié sur un autre post.

http://www.lastoilshock.com/map.html

Cette aproche est intéressante.

[energy_isere]

AREVA parle trés briévement de la dépletion du pétrole dans son site , ici : http://www.areva.com/servlet/ContentSer ... 3045627878

40 ans ½
C'est le nombre d'années qu'il reste avant épuisement des réserves de pétrole calculé à partir du rythme actuel de consommation. Selon le scénario le plus défavorable, la moitié de ces réserves seront épuisées entre 2015 et 2020.

ARREVA base son argumentation energétique sur les datas de l' Agence International de l' Energie.

[prontalgix]

AREVA parle trés briévement de la dépletion du pétrole dans son site , ici : http://www.areva.com/servlet/ContentSer ... 3045627878

40 ans ½
C'est le nombre d'années qu'il reste avant épuisement des réserves de pétrole calculé à partir du rythme actuel de consommation. Selon le scénario le plus défavorable, la moitié de ces réserves seront épuisées entre 2015 et 2020.

Oui ils causent du pétrole et même une petite ligne sur les réserves d'uranium

[Tiennel]

EDF ne publie pas cette courbe sur toutes les pages de son site, mais cela a néanmoins un parfum officiel :


Source : http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/12/54/36746569.pdf (PDF - page 2)

VPO en 2015-2020, PF (Pic Fossiles) en 2040 : seul le PN (Pic Nucléaire) paraît repoussé aux calandres grecques, comme dirait Béru... Chacun a son sujet tabou

[thorgal]

c'est assez interessant ces courbes de prediction car en fait, on ne saura probablement jamais comment celles-ci declineront reellement sur le long terme. On verra surement le pic une fois passe (plateau ondule ou non) mais ensuite, ce sera tres tres difficile d'avoir et de maintenir des chiffres realistes. Ca reste de la speculation de ma part, mais dans une economie agonisante (celle du tout petrole), je ne vois vraiment pas comment on pourrait maintenir des stats solides, lorsque meme a l'heure actuelle, les chiffres avances par les pays producteurs sont souvent douteux. Par ailleurs, ces chiffres dependent de tellement de facteurs divers (techno, geo, politico, economico, socio, etc) que tracer une courbe de prediction a si long terme telle qu'on le voit sur ce graphe peut s'averer trompeur. A ce titre, la courbe de declin de la production US est un mauvais exemple car elle est arrive durant une periode d'abondance mondiale encore peu exploitee. Je crois tres peu a un facteur d'echelle que l'on pourrait appliquer a cette courbe pour decrire le declin mondial. Encore une fois, nous ne saurons probablement pas la forme de la courbe reelle.

[GillesH38]

pas tout a fait d'accord, Thorgal, autant on peut dire n'importe quoi sur les réserves, autant il n'est pas si facile de mentir sur la production. betement, il faut transporter les hydrocarbures, et le volume transportable par les pipelines et les bateaux est quand meme assez facilement estimable, au moins en ordre de grandeur. Tant qu'il y aura des géologues fouineurs a l'ASPO, on ne pourra quand meme pas trop tricher ! .

Il y a une réponse tres simple en ordre de grandeur : si le pic arrive à peu pres a la moitié de la dépletion, alors la courbe est a peu pres symétrique, une fois lissée les fluctuations géopolitiques. Ca laisse assez peu d'incertitude sur le futur, le parametre essentiel etant juste le montant des URR qui détermine le point médian.

A part ça, a l'oeil, le graphique de Tiennel ressemble diablement au scénario dépletionniste pour les fossiles. Il est optimiste sur le nucléaire (surgénération nécessaire) et les renouvelables (pas evident pour moi d'atteindre ce niveau, sachant les limites de l'hydro et le fait qu'il est très difficile de dépasser 20 % de production électrique par des sources intermittentes...)