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Uranium Prices to Keep Rising Says Australia's Abare
MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Uranium prices will likely gain 11% next year as reactor stockpiles dwindle and miners such as BHP Billiton (BHP) can't keep up with demand, Australia's chief commodities forecaster said Monday.

Prices of the nuclear fuel are expected to average US$30.10 a pound in 2006, from $US27.10 a pound this year, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said in its quarterly bulletin. That compares with a spot price of US$30.75 a pound Sept. 12.

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Uranium prices have more than trebled since early 2003 as less of the radioactive metal from disarmed nuclear weapons makes its way to utilities' stockpiles. Demand has increased as China, India and Russia build more reactors and uranium investment funds have started buying the fuel.

Prices "are forecast to rise in the short term, with the underlying deficit between uranium supply (mine production and secondary sources) and consumption leading to a decline in stocks," Abare said.

Mine production will be just 60% of world demand this year, Abare said in the report. Production is expected to increase 2% to 49,800 tons in 2006 and consumption is expected to gain 1.4% to 81,800 tons.

The recent price gain means a small rise in production should translate into big earnings for Australian uranium miners. While mine output is expected to gain just 4.3% to 11,434 tons next year as BHP ramps up production at its Olympic Dam mine, export earnings are expected to rise 30% to A$616 million from A$475 million this year, Abare said.

Average contract prices received by Australian miners should rise to A$53.90 a kilogram in 2006 from A$42.20 a kilogram this year.

Uranium price expected to increase

The price of uranium on the worldwide market will continue to increase in 2006, an international uranium consulting firm forecasts.

Noting a spot price of over $35 per pound, a report by Resource Capital Research of Sydney, Australia, anticipates that the price will reach $40 per pound in 2006 and $50 per pound by 2007.

Thus far this year, the price has increased by 70 percent. "Current market pressures are stronger than initially predicted to investment and restocking activity," the report says.

Demand for uranium is expected to exceed supplies for at least the next decade "driven by end users in the power generation market which is urgently trying to secure supply into the future."

Much of the new demand will come from developing countries, where 130 new nuclear reactors are planned over the next 15 years. China has plans to build 27 new plants by 2020, and India has plans to add 17 new reactors by 2012.

The report notes that supplies are constrained by a lack of new mine production and by declining inventories.

Several countries are taking steps to make nuclear power easier to develop. The reports says Australia is scrapping a ban on uranium exports to China, and the U.S. is lifting restrictions on nuclear power in India. In Canada, British Columbia has lifted a ban on uranium exploration and development.

Current annual primary uranium production from world mining is about 100 million pounds. "This will need to increase by 60 percent by the year 2018 to meet expected demand," according to the report.

Ray Harris, a uranium expert at the Wyoming State Geological Survey, said areas in Wyoming suited for in-situ development likely will see the most activity in 2006.

"I expect to see an increase in exploration by geophysics and drilling with the goal of defining in-situ reserves and mining potential," he said.

Harris also anticipates a price increase, though the rate of increase will be moderate.

In a related item, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects a widening gap on a British Thermal Unit (Btu) basis between U.S. energy consumption and production until 2030 -- meaning the difference increasingly will have to made up by energy imports of one sort or another.

In 2004, the largest uranium producing region was Canada, with 29 percent of world mine production. Canada was followed by the Commonwealth of Independent States/China (27 percent), Australia (22 percent) and Africa (17 percent). The United States accounted for only 2 percent of such production.

energy_isere a écrit :le cout de l' Uranium en hausse vertigineuse :