Tant que les cours était trés bas Cameco achetait de l' U3O8 au marché spot pour livrer ses clients en contrat long terme. La Cameco continue à acheter au marché spot, mais plus cher.
https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2020/ ... eze-is-on/Uranium Week: Squeeze Is On
Apr 22 2020 By Greg Peel
The uranium spot price continues to soar on ongoing supply curtailment.
Last month Cameco shut down its Cigar Lake mine – the world’s largest operating uranium mine – for a month, as directed by the Canadian Federal and Saskatchewan state governments for the sake of worker safety. Last week Cameco announced the shutdown would be extended – indefinitely.
The twist in the tale is Cameco has stood as a major buyer in the uranium spot market for some time now after first shuttering some operations when spot prices fell below the cost of production, and more recently shutting up shop on virus fears. The less Cameco produces, the more it has to buy in the market to satisfy existing delivery contracts, and the more it buys, the higher the spot uranium price rises.
This fact is not lost on sellers of uranium, which currently are mostly traders given little uranium is being produced. Traders also dominate the buy-side as they attempt to exploit obligatory demand from producers such as Cameco, and this equation has resulted in a 35% jump in the uranium spot price in less than a month.
Utilities? There’s a smattering of demand from end-users, but realistically there is no sign of urgency in needing to secure product before prices run up any higher.
This week saw speculators caught out in the WTI crude oil futures market. Speculators are dominating the uranium market while producers can do nothing about it, such as restart production, while virus lockdowns persist.
Last week saw significant volume in the spot market, with 22 transactions concluded totalling 2.6mlbs U3O8 equivalent, industry consultant TradeTech reports. TradeTech’s weekly spot price indicator rose US$2.75 to US$32.25/lb, up an average 8% per week over the last month and 25% year on year.
Unlike the oil market, the uranium market has not suffered demand destruction. On the contrary, nuclear power is flowing freely as an essential service at this time, with nuclear plants taking precautions but already quite familiar with the concept of worker safety. Yet utility demand has not jumped.
There were a couple of small transactions completed in the mid-term market last week, TradeTech reports, for just beyond the spot delivery window. TradeTech’s term price indicators remain at US$31.00/lb (mid) and US$34.00/lb (long).
How long can this speculator-driven spot price rally last? Ask the virus.