La production pétroliére des USA

[energy_isere]

U.S. Oil Drilling Slow Down Continues

By Julianne Geiger - Jun 23, 2023

The total number of total active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 5 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday, falling by more than 70 rigs over the last two months.

The total rig count fell to 682 this week—71 rigs below this time last year. The current count is 393 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic.
The number of oil rigs declined by 6 this week to 546, while the number of gas rigs stayed the same, at 130. Gas rigs are now 27 below where they were a year ago, while oil rigs are 48 below. Miscellaneous rigs rose by 1 to 6.

The rig count in the Permian Basin fell by 1—and are now 8 rigs below this same time last year. The rig count in the Eagle Ford stayed the same, and was down 12 rigs from this time last year.

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells (which is cheaper than drilling new wells), rose for a second week in a row--by 2 in the week ending June 16, to 268. The frac spread count is 16 behind where it was this time last year.

Adding to the trend of decreasing drilling activity, crude oil production levels in the United States fell to 12.2 million bpd in the week ending June 16, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates, returning to January levels. U.S. production levels are now up 200,000 bpd versus a year ago.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... inues.html

[tita]

Derniers chiffres mensuels de l'EIA pour la production de avril dernier.

La production a diminué, passant de 12'717 kb/j à 12'615 kb/j, soit une diminution de 102 kb/j. La production offshore a diminué de 138 kb/j à 1'734 kb/j ce qui fait que la production onshore a augmenté de 36 kb/j. Sur les 5 derniers mois, la production onshore a augmenté de 296 kb/j. Les estimations hebdomadaires étaient à 12'275 kb/j, une sous-estimation de 340 kb/j

Sur les 12 derniers mois (avr. 2022-avr. 2023), la production US a augmenté de 947 kb/j.

Rien de très particulier cette fois, c'est plutôt une stagnation.

[energy_isere]

U.S. Oil And Gas Rig Counts Decline For Second Consecutive Month

By Julianne Geiger - Jun 30, 2023,

The total rig count in the United States has dropped to 674 this week, which is 76 rigs fewer than this time last year and 401 fewer than the count at the beginning of 2019, before the pandemic.

The number of oil rigs decreased by one this week to 545, and the number of gas rigs dropped by six to 124, marking the fewest number of active gas rigs since February 2022.

Despite the overall decrease, the frac spread count, an estimate of crews completing unfinished wells, has increased for the third consecutive week, while crude oil production levels remained steady at 12.2 million bpd.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/U ... Month.html

[alain2908]

comment on explique la dernière phrase.
Les Rig sont plus performants ?
les pompages sont plus performants ?

[tita]

comment on explique la dernière phrase.
Les Rig sont plus performants ?
les pompages sont plus performants ?

Faut distinguer les puits qu'on creuse (rig count) et les puits qu'on complète (frac spread). Il y a BEAUCOUP de puits qui ont été forés mais n'ont pas été complétés (DUCs). 4'800 dans les dernier rapport DPR de l'EIA.

Entre août 2022 et avril 2023, la moyenne des complétion (d'après l'EIA) était de 1'074 puits par mois. Les complétions en avril étaient de 1'068. En mai, c'est descendu à 1'001, ce qui devrait se voir plutôt sur la production en juin (mais faut attendre le rapport mensuel fin août pour avoir des chiffres fiables).

Mais les complétions peuvent très bien augmenter tandis que les forages diminuent, en tapant dans les DUCs. C'est d'ailleurs ce qui s'est produit entre juin 2020 et avril 2022, où ils sont passés de 8'800 à 5'200. Depuis, ça a un peu diminué, mais ça pourrait à nouveau diminuer fortement.

Y'aura pas de chute drastique de la production US comme on avait pu le voir en 2020. Faudrait que les prix chutent fortement. Par contre, on peut s'attendre à ce que ça n'augmente pratiquement plus, voir que ça commence à diminuer fin 2023.

[energy_isere]

U.S. Drillers Add Gas Rigs As Oil Rig Count Slips Further

By Julianne Geiger - Jul 07, 2023

The total number of total active drilling rigs in the United States rose by 6 this week, after falling by 8 last week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday.

The total rig count rose to 680 this week—72 rigs below this time last year. The current count is 395 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic.
The number of oil rigs declined by 5 this week to 540, while the number of gas rigs rose by 11, to 135. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 5.

The rig count in the Permian Basin rose by 1 this week, and stand at 8 rigs below this same time last year. The rig count in the Eagle Ford fell by 1, and was down 8 rigs from this time last year.

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells (which is cheaper than drilling new wells), fell by 5 in the week ending June 30, to 272. The frac spread count is 13 behind where it was this time last year.

Crude oil production levels in the United States rose to 12.4 million bpd in the week ending June 30, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates—a gain of 200,000 bpd from the beginning of the year. U.S. production levels are now up 300,000 bpd versus a year ago.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/U ... rther.html

[energy_isere]

U.S. Oil, Gas Rigs See More Losses

By Julianne Geiger - Jul 14, 2023

The total number of total active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 5 this week, after a 6-rig increase last week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday.

The total rig count fell to 675 this week—81 rigs below this time last year. The current count is 400 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic.
The number of oil rigs declined by 3 this week to 537, while the number of gas rigs fell by 2, to 133. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 5.

The rig count in the Permian Basin fell by 5—13 rigs below this same time last year. The rig count in the Eagle Ford fell by 1, and was down 10 rigs from this time last year.


Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells (which is cheaper than drilling new wells), fell by 12 in the week ending July 7, to 260. The frac spread count is 25 behind where it was this time last year.

Crude oil production levels in the United States slipped back to 12.3 million bpd in the week ending July 7, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates—a gain of 100,000 bpd from the beginning of the year. U.S. production levels are now up 300,000 bpd versus a year ago.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... osses.html

[energy_isere]

suite de ce post du 10 juin 2023 viewtopic.php?p=2371243#p2371243

Le réapprovisionnement complet des reserves stratégiques US et bien c'est plus pour tout de suite :

U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Will Not Be Replenished Anytime Soon

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jul 13, 2023

The U.S. Administration will refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which saw millions of barrels of drawdowns last year, but the reserve will not be filled up soon, U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm told CNN in an interview this week.

“The bottom line is we are going to replenish,” Granholm said, adding that it was unlikely that the refill would be completed before the end of the term in office of President Joe Biden.
“The first term’s over in a year and a half. So, I’m not sure it’ll be fully replenished. But certainly, the plan is this term and the next term to be able to do that,” Granholm told CNN.

In October of last year, the administration announced that it would repurchase crude oil for the reserve when prices were at or below about $67-$72 per barrel. The move would be dual purpose in that not only would it replenish the nation’s depleted reserves, but it would boost demand when prices were low instead of sending them into orbit at a time of regular prices.

Last week, the U.S. Department of Energy announced that it plans to purchase by August 2023 around 6 million barrels of crude oil for the SPR, with delivery scheduled for October and November.

So far, the Biden Administration has bought 6.3 million barrels at an average price of $72.67 per barrel, compared to around $95 per barrel that SPR crude was sold for in 2022, DOE said.
Earlier this year, Secretary Granholm had suggested that the Administration would start repurchasing crude oil for filling the SPR in the autumn of this year and that the refilling could take years.

The Administration has previously said that repurchases could begin in the fourth quarter of this year after maintenance is completed on two sites storing the nation’s crude oil reserves in Texas and Louisiana.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... -Soon.html

[tita]

Dans le dernier "Drilling Productivity Report", le nombre de puits complétés est de 957 en juin, contre 1001 en mai et 1082 en avril. C'est une diminution nette qui laisse présager que la production US va finalement diminuer, en juin-juillet.

[energy_isere]

Dans le dernier "Drilling Productivity Report", le nombre de puits complétés est de 957 en juin, contre 1001 en mai et 1082 en avril. C'est une diminution nette qui laisse présager que la production US va finalement diminuer, en juin-juillet.

en effet :

USA Shale Oil Production Set to Fall Next Month

by Bloomberg|Mitchell Ferman|Tuesday, July 18, 2023

Shale oil production, which has revolutionized the energy industry and transformed the US economy, will stop growing in August, according to a government report.

After hitting record highs in June and July, US crude production is set to fall in August for the first time this year to 9.4 million barrels a day, led by a drop in the oil-rich Permian Basin. Combined with production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance, the US decline is expected to tip the world’s oil supply into deficit by the end of the year.

US onshore production has slowed as oil companies limit capital spending in favor of boosting returns to shareholders — a shift in strategy after chasing production growth at all costs over the last decade. At the same time, the most prolific basins have largely been leased up by oil companies willing to slow down and wait for the most opportune time to ramp up. Oil prices have fallen by 28 percent from a year ago amid demand headwinds and voluntary cuts.

The slowdown is also evident in a drop in the number of wells that have been drilled but not completed, which shows producers are clearing up a backlog. Still, four major forecasters expect the Permian — America’s largest oil basin that covers swaths of West Texas and New Mexico — to expand output by 40 percent from current levels to peak in 2030, according to a Bloomberg survey.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/usa_s ... 1-article/

[energy_isere]

U.S. Oil Rig Count Continues To Drop

By Julianne Geiger - Jul 21, 2023

The total number of active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 6 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday.

The total rig count fell to 669 this week. So far this year, Baker Hughes has estimated a loss of more than 100 active drilling rigs. This week’s count is also 406 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic.
The number of oil rigs declined by 7 this week to 530, down by 91 so far in 2023. The number of gas rigs fell by 2, to 131, a loss of 25 active gas rigs from the start of the year. Miscellaneous rigs gained 3 rigs this last week.

The rig count in the Permian Basin fell by 4—16 rigs below this same time last year. The rig count in the Eagle Ford fell by 2, and is now 13 fewer than this time last year.

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells (which is cheaper than drilling new wells), inched up by 3 in the week ending July 14, to 263. The frac spread count is 5 higher than where it started the year.

Crude oil production levels in the United States stayed steady at 12.3 million bpd in the week ending July 14, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates—a gain of just 100,000 bpd from the beginning of the year. U.S. production levels are now up 400,000 bpd versus a year ago.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... -Drop.html

[tita]

The slowdown is also evident in a drop in the number of wells that have been drilled but not completed, which shows producers are clearing up a backlog. Still, four major forecasters expect the Permian — America’s largest oil basin that covers swaths of West Texas and New Mexico — to expand output by 40 percent from current levels to peak in 2030, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Très optimiste. Le premier boom de LTO (2011-2015) avait vu 2 bassins se distinguer, Eagle Ford et Bakken. D'après les données de l'EIA:

Eagle Ford, pic en mars 2015 à 1.7 Mb/j, actuellement à 1.1 Mb/j
Bakken, pic en novembre 2019 à 1.55 Mb/j, actuellement à 1.2 Mb/j

Le bassin Permian, qui est très vaste avec des champs au Texas et au Nouveau-Mexique, a été le principal moteur du second boom de LTO (2016-2019). D'après les données de l'EIA, la production de ce bassin avait atteint 4.9 Mb/j en mars 2020, avant que ça baisse à cause de la pandémie, et que ça remonte actuellement à 5.7 Mb/j. Une hausse de 40%, c'est prédire 8Mb/j en 2030. Mais tout laisse penser qu'il va plutôt suivre le même chemin que les deux bassins cités ci-dessus.

[energy_isere]

U.S. Drilling Dips Slightly Amid Rising Oil Prices

By Julianne Geiger - Jul 28, 2023,

The total number of active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 5 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday.

The total rig count fell to 664 this week. So far this year, Baker Hughes has estimated a loss of more than 100 active drilling rigs. This week’s count is 411 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic.
The number of oil rigs declined by 1 this week to 529, down by 92 so far in 2023. The number of gas rigs fell by 3, to 128, a loss of 28 active gas rigs from the start of the year. Miscellaneous rigs lost 1 rig this last week.

The rig count in the Permian Basin rose by 1—17 rigs below this same time last year. The rig count in the Eagle Ford fell by 2, and is now 17 fewer than this time last year.

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells (which is cheaper than drilling new wells), rose for the second week in a row this week. The frac spread count rose to 274 in the week ending July 21, up from 263 in the week prior. The frac spread count is 16 higher than where it started the year.

Crude oil production levels in the United States fell by 100,000 bpd to 12.2 million bpd in the week ending July 21, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates—on par with production levels at the beginning of the year. U.S. production levels are now up 100,000 bpd versus a year ago.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/U ... rices.html

[tita]

Derniers chiffres mensuels de l'EIA pour la production de mai dernier.

La production a légèrement diminué, passant de 12'677 kb/j à 12'662 kb/j, soit une diminution de 15 kb/j. La production offshore a diminué de 30 kb/j à 1'705 kb/j ce qui fait que la production onshore a augmenté de 15 kb/j. Sur les 5 derniers mois, la production onshore a augmenté de 607 kb/j. Les estimations hebdomadaires étaient à 12'250 kb/j, une sous-estimation de 412 kb/j

Sur les 12 derniers mois (mai. 2022-mai. 2023), la production US a augmenté de 928 kb/j.

Pas de surprise sur ce rapport. Dans les prochains, la surprise viendrait d'une augmentation de la production onshore.

[energy_isere]

Retrait de l' offre d'achat de 6 millions de barils pour reconstituer la reserves stratégique.

U.S. Withdraws Offer To Buy 6 Million Barrels Of Oil For The SPR
By Irina Slav - Aug 02, 2023,

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... e-SPR.html