Re: [Chiffres] Le pic des exportations (de pétrole)
Publié : 01 juin 2008, 12:12
les producteurs de brut n'ont pas forcément la capacité de raffinage nécessaire pour leur marché intérieur. Faut aussi prendre ça en compte.
Site dédié à la fin de l'âge du pétrole
http://oleocene.org/phpBB3/
surtout que dans un certain nombre de pays exportateurs, les carburants vendus sur le marchés intérieur sont à un prix subventionné, ou du moins découplé du prix international.GillesH38 a écrit :le modèle ELM consiste à postuler que la consommation intérieure continue à croitre au même rythme quelque soit la courbe de production. Ce n'est pas stupide avant le pic mondial, ou au moins avant que les prix aient flambé : après tout les consommateurs ne savent pas combien produit leur pays !
Je referais le graphe quand j'aurais maltab sous la main (je l'ai pas chez moi, c'est un logiciel à 1000 euros!).Goupil666 a écrit :Merci Raminagrobis, c'est très intéressant.
Par rapport à ton article sur la demande épargnée, tu pourrais indiquer la répartition des 25-30% épargnés pour les trois cas.
Le graphique du taux de croissance de la consommation est un peu difficile à lire car les couleurs sont très proches, ne pourrais tu pas utiliser des symboles différenciés pour chaque pays ?
C' est dans business insider...Accordingly, not only will Middle East nations need more of their own fossil fuels to fund domestic construction, but the improvement of leased, foreign farmland to match their above trend population growth will also require fossil fuels.
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Arabian countries urged to boost oil investment in China
30 Aug 2010
Emirates Business 24/7 reported that Arab hydrocarbon producers need to expand their oil and gas investment in China to take advantage of its mammoth market potential and ensure enough outlets for their rising energy exports.
The Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries said that given the rapid growth in China’s hydrocarbon demand which is turning it into the world’s second largest energy consumer after the United States and a possible decline in the Arab nations’ hydrocarbon supplies to the West in the long term, regional countries need to forge a strong relationship with Beijing.
The Kuwaiti based Oapec, which groups 10 Arab hydrocarbon producers said that despite the divergence in their interests and export and investment resources, the Arab countries need to look at China from the energy supply security perspective as well as the demand security perspective.
It said that this will encourage direct investment in China as the best strategic future move that will allow the Arab states to find viable marketing outlets for their oil, gas and petroleum products. Several Arab states have already invested in China while others are considering such investments in the hydrocarbon sector.
In 50 page study on the Arab and China oil relations until 2030, Oapec said that the crude imports of the most populous nation on earth from the Arab region are projected to jump from only one million bpd in 2003 to nearly 6.2 million barrels per day in 2030 to account for about 56% of Beijing’s total crude imports. This will boost China’s share of the combined Arab oil exports from only around four per cent to 16% in 2030.
A breakdown showed growth in the Arab oil exports to other countries will be much slower during that period, with those to North America rising by around 1.6 million barrels per day to 4.1 million barrels per day and those to Europe by about 2.8 million barrels per day to 5.2 million barrels per day. Oil exports to other Asian nations will slip by nearly 100,000 million barrels per day to 6 million barrels per day while total Arab oil exports will surge to 38.4 million barrels per day in 2030 from around 22.5 million barrels per day in 2003 and 21 million barrels per day in 2009.
The report showed that6 Arab nations, which control nearly 668 billion barrels accounting for over 57% of the world’s proven crude deposits will be able to offset a decline in oil supplies from many other regions, including former Soviet Union, whose oil exports will decline to 5.6 million barrels per day from 7.2 million barrels per day.
The study said that the natural result of this heavy dependence by China on Arab oil will be a dramatic development of relations between the two sides. These relations have already started to take shape. Such relations are illustrated in the rapid growth in China’s investment in the oil and gas sector in the Arab world, mainly in the Gulf and the investments being channeled by Arab nations into refining and other sectors in China.
The study urged Arabs and China to intensify what it described as an objective and constructive dialogue to expand cooperation in oil and gas, adding that crude demand in China is projected to soar from 7.1 million barrels per day to 16 million barrels per day in 2030 nearly 14% of the global oil demand during that year.
The study said that there is a great scope for expanding trade between Arab states and China in the field of refining products. This field is still limited compared to China’s massive market potential given the expected rapid demand for gasoline in that country because of a projected sharp rise in the number of cars.