La production pétroliére des USA

[energy_isere]

U.S. Drilling Rigs Swing To Annual Loss For First Time In Years

By Julianne Geiger - May 19, 2023

The total number of total active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 11 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday, after falling by 17 last week.

The total rig count fell to 720 this week—8 rigs below this time last year. It is the first year-over-year loss in the number of active drilling rigs in the United States since April 2021. The current count is 355 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic.
The decline in the number of rigs was entirely attributed to oil rigs, which fell by 11 this week to 575. Gas rigs stayed the same at 141. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 4.

The rig count in the Permian Basin fell by 4, while the rig count in the Eagle Ford fell by 3.

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells—a more frugal use of finances than drilling new wells, fell by 10 for the week ending May 12, to 272. This is 11 fewer finishing crews than a month ago, and 12 fewer than a year ago.

Crude oil production levels in the United States fell in the week ending May 12, from 12.3 million bpd to 12.2 million bpd, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates. U.S. production levels are up just 300,000 bpd versus a year ago.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/U ... Years.html

[energy_isere]

Oil Rebounds As U.S. Drillers Continue To Pull Back

By Julianne Geiger - May 26, 2023,

The total number of total active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 9 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday, after falling by 11 last week and 17 the week before that.

The total rig count fell to 711 this week—16 rigs below this time last year. The current count is 364 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic.
The number of rigs fell by 5 this week to 570. Gas rigs fell by 4 to 137. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 4.

The rig count in the Permian Basin saw a rebound of 1—just 8 above this time last year. The rig count in the Eagle Ford also rose by 1.

The total number of total active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 9 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday, after falling by 11 last week and 17 the week before that.

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells—a more frugal use of finances than drilling new wells, fell by 10 for the second week in a row in the week ending May 19, to 262—the lowest number of completion crews in operation since January. Fracking crews have diminished in number for three weeks in a row, losing a total of 32. Year over year, it is 26 fewer than a year ago.

Crude oil production levels in the United States rose in the week ending May 19, back to 12.3 million bpd, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates. U.S. production levels are up just 400,000 bpd versus a year ago.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... -Back.html

[alain2908]

je suis allé regardé les prévisions de l'EIA que Tita avait publiée l'an dernier.

l'EIA table sur août 2023 pour retrouver les 13 Mb/j. La production US devrait redépasser les 12 Mb/j dans le courant de l'été.

perso, je ne sens pas les 13 M de barils arriver cet été.

[tita]

je suis allé regardé les prévisions de l'EIA que Tita avait publiée l'an dernier.

l'EIA table sur août 2023 pour retrouver les 13 Mb/j. La production US devrait redépasser les 12 Mb/j dans le courant de l'été.

perso, je ne sens pas les 13 M de barils arriver cet été.

Bien vu. Dans le STEO (d'où je tire les prédictions de l'EIA), on ne dépasse même plus les 13 Mb/j fin 2024. La production US a bien dépassé les 12 Mb/j en août 2022, atteignant même 12.6 Mb/j en mars 2023, mais ça devrait stagner pendant un bon moment.

Encore une baisse des forages dans le dernier décompte.

[tita]

Derniers chiffres mensuels de l'EIA pour la production de mars dernier.

La production a bien augmenté, passant de 12'525 kb/j à 12'696 kb/j, soit une augmentation de 171 kb/j. La production offshore a augmenté de 45 kb/j à 1'872 kb/j ce qui fait que la production onshore a augmenté de 126 kb/j. Sur les 5 derniers mois, la production onshore a augmenté de 228 kb/j. Les estimations hebdomadaires étaient à 12'220 kb/j, une sous-estimation de 476 kb/j

Sur les 12 derniers mois (mar. 2022-mar. 2023), la production US a augmenté de 995 kb/j.

Petite surprise, avec un écart important entre les estimations hebdomadaires et le rapport mensuel (plus complet). La question est de savoir si cette hausse va se poursuivre. Dans les estimations hebdomadaire, c'est actuelle à 12'200 kb/j, nettement plus bas que la production de mars. Mais c'est probablement sous-estimé.

[marc00]

on a quand même eu sacrement tout faux...

[Jeudi]

on a quand même eu sacrement tout faux...

Bah, si vous pouviez prévoir cela vous seriez riche.

[tita]

Et les forages sont à nouveau à la baisse cette semaine. -15 unités pour les forages pétroliers, aucun changement pour les forages gaziers.

Par rapport à 12 mois auparavant, c'est 19 unités en moins (pétrole), 14 en moins (gaz), et 31 en moins ensembles (y'a deux unités en plus dans les divers).

[tita]

on a quand même eu sacrement tout faux...

On a eu faux sur pleins de choses, mais tu penses à quoi en particulier?

Après 2015, j'avais pas anticipé le second boom du LTO qui est survenu en 2017-2019. Mais actuellement, y'a pas de 3ème boom... Et en fait je m'attends pas à ce qu'il y en ait un.

[kercoz]

Pour le pétrole et le gaz, il faudrait un instrument de mesure fiable....dire qu'on augment de 10X la production, s' il faut 3X pour les produire c'est pas comparable au 10X qui nécessitaient 0,1 X pour les produire.

[Rod]

Et les forages sont à nouveau à la baisse cette semaine. -15 unités pour les forages pétroliers, aucun changement pour les forages gaziers.

Par rapport à 12 mois auparavant, c'est 19 unités en moins (pétrole), 14 en moins (gaz), et 31 en moins ensembles (y'a deux unités en plus dans les divers).

Comment se fait il que la production se maintienne alors, avec des taux de déclin de "soit-disant" 25% dès la première année

[tita]

Et les forages sont à nouveau à la baisse cette semaine. -15 unités pour les forages pétroliers, aucun changement pour les forages gaziers.

Par rapport à 12 mois auparavant, c'est 19 unités en moins (pétrole), 14 en moins (gaz), et 31 en moins ensembles (y'a deux unités en plus dans les divers).

Comment se fait il que la production se maintienne alors, avec des taux de déclin de "soit-disant" 25% dès la première année

Il y a toujours un nombre important de DUCs, puits forés mais pas complétés. Le stock est cependant en déclin (les opérateurs complètent plus de puits qu'ils n'en creusent). Le nombre de puits complétés est stable d'après le rapport DPR de l'EIA.

On n'a pas encore les chiffres récents de la production. Il y a un décalage entre le décompte des forages et les conséquences que ça a sur la production. La baisse des forages est très récente, et pas non plus énorme (comme au printemps 2020).

Si tu regardes en fait les profils de production de champ, comme Eagle Ford, tu vois une production stable:

https://novilabs.com/blog/eagle-ford-up ... mber-2022/

Pourtant, les puits creusés en 2021 produisaient 411 kb/j en décembre 2021, et 134 kb/j en novembre 2022. Plutôt -66%. Mais c'est compensé par la production qui a été ajoutée en 2022. Il y a aussi le fait que la production d'anciens puits continue. 1/3 de la production viennent de puits creusés avant 2018.

[energy_isere]

suite de ce post du 16 mai 2023 : viewtopic.php?p=2369514#p2369514

...............annonce, faite en deuxième partie de journée par le ministère américain de l'Energie, du rachat effectif de trois millions de barils de brut pour réapprovisionner les réserves stratégiques des Etats-Unis.

Cinq compagnies sur les dix qui s'étaient portées candidates pour vendre leur pétrole se sont vues attribuer l'offre.

Les barils ont été achetés par le gouvernement au prix de 73 dollars le baril en moyenne, bien en dessous du prix de 95 dollars le baril auquel ces réserves avaient été vendues, "soit un bon deal pour les contribuables", s'est félicité le ministère de l'Energie dans un communiqué. Ce pétrole sera livré en août et stocké dans les cuves souterraines du site de Big Hill, au Texas.

Le gouvernement a par ailleurs émis une autre offre de rachat pour trois autres millions de barils de brut, qui sera adjugée d'ici le 20 juin.

Après que l'administration a commencé à puiser en septembre 2021 dans ces réserves stratégiques afin de faire pression sur les prix à la baisse, celles-ci sont tombées à leur plus bas niveau depuis 1983, à 353,6 millions de barils.

https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... nde-230609

[energy_isere]

U.S. Shale Patch Sees Rig Count Decline By 8 This Week

By Julianne Geiger - Jun 16, 2023

The total number of total active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 8 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday, falling by 57 from in the last six weeks.

The total rig count fell to 687 this week—53 rigs below this time last year. The current count is 388 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic.
The number of oil rigs declined by 4 this week to 552. Gas rigs slipped 5, reaching 130. Gas rigs are now 24 below where they were a year ago, while oil rigs are 32 below. Miscellaneous rigs rose by 1.

The rig count in the Permian Basin fell by 4—and are now 3 rigs below this same time last year. The rig count in the Eagle Ford rose by 2, but was down 9 rigs from this time last year.

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells (which is cheaper than drilling new wells), rose by 10 in the week ending June 9, to 266. The number of fracking crews for the week measured rose for the first time after five consecutive weekly declines. The frac spread count is 17 less than this time last year.

Despite the trend of decreasing drilling activity, crude oil production levels in the United States were flat in the week ending June 9, at 12.4 million bpd, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates—the highest level since April 2020. U.S. production levels are now up 500,000 bpd versus a year ago.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... -Week.html

[energy_isere]

USA Crude Oil Output Growing But Slowing

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff|Friday, June 16, 2023

U.S. crude oil production is expected to average 12.61 million barrels per day in 2023.


The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO) that it expects U.S. crude oil production to set annual records in 2023 and 2024 but added that growth is slowing.

“We estimate West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $83 per barrel over the three years from 2022 to 2024, while annual growth in U.S. crude oil production over the same period will average 0.4 million barrels per day,” the EIA said in its June STEO.

“That compares to average crude oil production growth of 1.1 million barrels per day during the three-year period from 2017 to 2019, when the WTI price averaged only $58 per barrel,” the EIA added.

The changing response to crude oil prices by U.S. producers may reflect a combination of the use of capital to increase dividends and repurchase shares instead of investing in new production, the effects of tighter labor markets and higher costs, and increased pressure on oilfield supply chains, the EIA noted in the STEO.

“Despite this shift from the historical price response , we still expect U.S. crude oil production to continue growing to record levels, driven primarily by production growth in the Permian Basin,” the EIA added.

According to the June STEO, U.S. crude oil production will average 12.61 million barrels per day in 2023 and 12.77 million barrels per day in 2024. Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, take 10.31 million barrels per day and 10.46 million barrels per day of the total U.S. share in 2023 and 2024, respectively, the STEO shows. The Federal Gulf of Mexico takes 1.88 million barrels per day and 1.91 million barrels per day in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and Alaska takes 0.42 million barrels per day and 0.40 million barrels per day in 2023 and 2024, respectively, according to the STEO.

Looking at a quarterly breakdown, the June STEO projects that U.S. crude oil production will average 12.56 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 12.57 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 12.70 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 12.69 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 12.63 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2024, 12.76 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2024, and 13 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of next year.

U.S. crude oil output averaged 11.89 million barrels per day back in 2022, the June STEO highlighted. Last year, Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, produced an average of 9.71 million barrels per day, the STEO revealed. The Federal Gulf of Mexico produced 1.74 million barrels per day and Alaska produced 0.44 million barrels per day, the STEO outlined.

In its previous STEO, which was released in May, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production would come in at 12.53 million barrels per day in 2023 and 12.69 million barrels per day in 2024. In that STEO, Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, were expected to take 10.21 million barrels per day and 10.37 million barrels per day of the total U.S. share in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The Federal Gulf of Mexico was expected to take 1.90 million barrels per day and 1.92 million barrels per day in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and Alaska was expected to take 0.42 million barrels per day and 0.40 million barrels per day in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

According to EIA data stretching back to January 1983, weekly U.S. field production of crude oil hit a record of 13.1 million barrels per day in the week ending February 28, 2020, and the week ending March 13, 2020. Weekly U.S. field production of crude oil didn’t break above 12.5 million barrels per day the following month, 12 million barrels per day in May 2020, and 11.2 million barrels per day in June 2020, the data shows.

According to the latest data entry, weekly U.S. field production of crude oil came in at 12.4 million barrels per day in the week ending June 9, 2023. The last time weekly U.S. field production of crude oil hit this figure was back in the week ending April 3, 2020, the data outlines.

The lowest weekly U.S. field production of crude oil figure in the EIA data was recorded in the week ending September 30, 2005, at 3.813 million barrels per day.

The EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment, according to its website. The organization was created in response to the need for additional Federal initiatives to collect and disseminate energy-related information, and to evaluate and analyze this information, the EIA’s site notes.