Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

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Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par energy_isere » 17 août 2020, 18:46

Bank Of America: Brent Will Recover To $60 In H1 2021
By Irina Slav - Aug 17, 2020
Bank of America expects oil prices to recover to $60 a barrel for Brent crude in the first half of next year thanks to shrinking global inventories and prices improving faster than previously expected.
lire https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... -2021.html

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Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par tita » 20 août 2020, 16:58

Le Brent était tombé sous les $60 le 1er juillet 2015, et n'avait retrouvé ce niveau qu'au 1er novembre 2017, soit 2 ans et 4 mois plus tard.

Actuellement, le Brent est passé sous les $60 le 29 janvier. L'idée qu'il puisse remonter à $60 une année après, et avec tout ce qu'implique la situation actuelle, est assez farfelue à mon avis. Même en étant assez optimiste, on est dans une situation où la demande est en berne et les producteurs coupent volontairement leur offre pour maintenir les prix à un niveau acceptable.

De plus, il faut bien comprendre que sur les 5 premiers mois de l'année, il y a 1.2 milliards de barils qui ont été stockés. Bien que ce stock va diminuer et le prix probablement remonter, il faudra encore que les producteurs maintiennent leurs coupes pour que le prix augmente au-delà de $50. Sauf que dès que le prix remontera (pour l'instant, il stagne depuis 3 mois sous les $43), les producteurs vont commencer à augmenter leur prod en anticipant une reprise.

Après, on peut imaginer plein de scénarios possible évidemment. Mais là, difficile à mon avis.

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Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par tita » 01 sept. 2020, 09:18

Il y a quand même un truc qui est un peu surprenant dans le prix du pétrole. Habituellement, il est inversement corrélé avec la valeur du dollar. En effet, lorsque le dollar baisse face aux autres monnaies, le pétrole (uniquement traité en dollars) deviendrait moins cher. Ce qui fait que le prix augmente de façon mécanique.

Le dollar a fortement baissé face à l'euro. Depuis le 14 juillet, il est passé de 0.88€ à 0.834€. Hors, pendant cette même période, le pétrole est passé de $40.5 à $43. D'un côté 5% de baisse, de l'autre 6% de hausse. Donc le prix du pétrole est simplement resté stable et n'a pas vraiment augmenté depuis.

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Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par energy_isere » 03 sept. 2020, 07:21

Goldman Expects Oil To Reach $65 Next Year

By Irina Slav - Sep 01, 2020

Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to reach $65 a barrel in the third quarter of 2021, although it could end the year lower, at $58 a barrel, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.

In a note, they also said they expected West Texas Intermediate to rally to $55.88 a barrel by the third quarter of next year, up from $51.38 a barrel in earlier forecasts, Business Insider reports.

"There is a growing likelihood that vaccines will become widely available starting next spring, helping support global growth and oil demand, especially jet," the Goldman analysts said.

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Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par energy_isere » 04 sept. 2020, 08:20


Brent Oil Price to Grow by $14 (Fitch)

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone StaffThursday, September 03, 2020

The average price of Brent crude oil will increase by $14 per barrel from 2020 to 2024, according to Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research’s latest oil price report.

Fitch Solutions expects Brent to average $44 per barrel this year, before growing to average $51 per barrel in 2021, $53 per barrel in 2022, $55 per barrel in 2023 and $58 per barrel in 2024.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/brent_oil_ ... 4-article/

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Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par energy_isere » 14 sept. 2020, 23:59

Citigroup sees $60 oil before the end of 2021

By SHARON CHO on 9/14/2020
(Bloomberg)

Citigroup Inc. has a message to cheer up despairing oil bulls: prices will get back to $60 a barrel before the end of 2021.

“We’re bullish definitely,” Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citi, said in an interview during the S&P Global Platts Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference. “In our base case, prices go up because the market balances” and gigantic inventories are drawn down, he said.

The rate at which those stockpiles are shrinking appears to have slowed in recent weeks as the coronavirus proved stubbornly persistent and the OPEC+ alliance returned barrels to the market. That’s pushed global benchmark Brent crude down around 12% so far this month.

It will take until late 2021 for global oil consumption to return to the 2019 level of 101 million barrels a day due to growth in economy, Morse said. Citi sees global benchmark Brent crude, which is currently trading near $40 a barrel, averaging around $55 in 2021 before getting back to the $60 mark by the end of the year. West Texas Intermediate will recover to $58 by then.

Commodity trading giant Trafigura Group, however, expects crude stockpiles to increase through the end of this year on weak demand, with the market to look “worse in a couple of months from now.” That compares with Citi’s prediction for Brent oil to climb and average $48 a barrel during the fourth quarter.

For Citi, petrochemical feedstock and gasoline will be the biggest growth drivers for fuels, while the consumption of jet fuel is expected to stage a comeback in 2024-2025, Morse said.
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/9/14 ... nd-of-2021

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Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par energy_isere » 19 sept. 2020, 08:23

Bullish Goldman Sachs Expects Brent To Hit $49 By Year-End

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Sep 18, 2020

Goldman Sachs is bullish on oil, expecting the market to be in a deficit of around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) by the fourth quarter and Brent Crude prices to recover to $49 a barrel by the end of this year, from $43 early on Friday.

According to a new report from Goldman analysts, carried by Reuters, the recent floating storage of oil is more "transient inventory allocation dynamics" instead of a signal of a new glut.

"We estimate that the oil market remains in deficit with speculative positioning now at too low levels," Goldman Sachs said, keeping its Brent Crude target at $49 by end-2020 and $65 by the third quarter of 2021.


Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs forecast Brent Crude to reach $65 a barrel in the third quarter of 2021, although it could end next year lower, at $58 a barrel.

Goldman Sachs also expects WTI Crude to rally to $55.88 a barrel by the third quarter of 2021, up from $51.38 a barrel in earlier forecasts.

"There is a growing likelihood that vaccines will become widely available starting next spring, helping support global growth and oil demand, especially jet," the Goldman analysts said earlier this month, and are keeping that view.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... r-End.html

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Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par energy_isere » 02 déc. 2020, 09:14

Goldman Sachs Sees Oil Hit $65 In 2021

By Irina Slav - Nov 30, 2020

Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to reach $65 a barrel next year following the release of an effective Covid-19 vaccine and a limited increase in supply from OPEC+.

........
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... -2021.html

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Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par energy_isere » 03 mai 2021, 09:56

energy_isere a écrit :
02 déc. 2020, 09:14
Goldman Sachs Sees Oil Hit $65 In 2021

By Irina Slav - Nov 30, 2020

Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to reach $65 a barrel next year following the release of an effective Covid-19 vaccine and a limited increase in supply from OPEC+.

........
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... -2021.html
on y est :

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Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par energy_isere » 03 mai 2021, 09:58

pour la suite : 80 $ dés cet été selon Goldman Sachs
Goldman: Oil To Hit $80 On Largest Ever Demand Jump

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 28, 2021

Goldman Sachs expects global oil demand to realize the biggest jump ever over the next six months, the investment bank said on Wednesday, keeping its bullish forecasts for oil prices this summer.

Higher demand for travel and acceleration of vaccinations in Europe are set to result in “the biggest jump in oil demand ever, a 5.2 million barrels per day (bpd) rise over the next six months,” Reuters quoted Goldman Sachs as saying in a note to clients.

Goldman Sachs continues to see oil rising to $80 per barrel this summer and says that “The magnitude of the coming change in the volume of demand -- a change which supply cannot match -- must not be understated,” as carried by FXStreet.

At the beginning of this month, Goldman also issued a bullish note, saying that it anticipated strong demand that would require OPEC+ putting another 2 million barrels per day (bpd) on the market in the third quarter, after the around 2 million bpd that the alliance and Saudi Arabia decided to return between May and July.

In early April, the investment bank expected excess oil inventories to normalize by the fall of 2021.

At the end of April, Goldman Sachs continues to forecast a large demand rebound this year, despite the soaring COVID cases in India, which have somewhat clouded the demand outlook.

“Commodity markets have looked through the sharp rise in Covid-19 cases in India,” Goldman Sachs said today.

At the beginning of March, the bank expected Brent Crude prices to hit $80 a barrel in the third quarter this year, up by $5 compared to the previous forecast issued two weeks earlier.

Even after the sell-off in oil in mid-March, Goldman said that the “big breather” was a buying opportunity for oil and continued to forecast Brent hitting $80 per barrel in the summer.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... -Jump.html

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Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par energy_isere » 12 juin 2021, 09:58

Goldman Sachs Doubles Down On $80 Oil Prediction
By Charles Kennedy - Jun 11, 2021

Goldman Sachs has reiterated its forecast that Brent crude will hit $80 per barrel this summer as demand quickly recovers.

"Rising vaccination rates are leading to higher mobility in the U.S. and Europe, with global demand estimated up 1.5 mb/d (million barrels per day) in the last month to 96.5 mb/d," the investment bank said in a note as quoted by Reuters.

Goldman first said it expected Brent to hit $80 this year in March, expecting this to happen by the third quarter of this year.

Then, in April, the bank reiterated its forecast, noting, "The magnitude of the coming change in the volume of demand -- a change which supply cannot match -- must not be understated."
...................
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... ction.html

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Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par energy_isere » 21 juin 2021, 23:57

Bank of America Says Oil May Hit $100 Next Year

by Bloomberg|Grant Smith|Monday, June 21, 2021

(Bloomberg) -- Oil may surge to $100 a barrel next year as travel demand rebounds, Bank of America Corp. said, the strongest call yet among major forecasters for a return to triple digits.

Global oil consumption will continue to outstrip supply in 2022 as the economic recovery from the pandemic boosts fuel consumption, while investment in new production is crimped by environmental concerns, the bank said in a report.

“There is plenty of pent-up oil demand ready to be unleashed,” said Francisco Blanch, the bank’s New York-based head of commodities research. Brent futures traded near $74 a barrel on Monday.

While other market-watchers, from trading house Trafigura Group to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., have already said that oil could reach $100 again in the right conditions, the prediction from Bank of America is the firmest to date.

........
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/bofa_ ... 2-article/

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Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par energy_isere » 26 juin 2021, 12:31

Oil likely to hit $100 a barrel, say top commodity traders
Executives point to a slowdown in investment in supplies before demand has peaked

David Sheppard and Neil Hume in London JUNE 15 2021

The world’s top commodity traders have forecast a return to $100-a-barrel oil, as investment in new supplies slows down before demand has peaked and before green alternatives can take up the slack.

Executives from Vitol, Glencore and Trafigura and Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday that $100 crude was a real possibility, with prices already reaching their highest level in two years this week as Brent crude moved above $73 a barrel.

The prediction comes at a time when concern about inflation is rising and many commodities, such as copper, have already reached record highs, boosted by supply shortfalls as the economic recovery gathers pace.

Oil has lagged behind because of a slowdown in demand during the coronavirus pandemic and fears demand could peak in the next decade. But predictions that prices will move much higher in the next few years have gained momentum in recent weeks.

Jeremy Weir, executive chair of Trafigura, one of the world’s largest independent oil traders, told the FT Commodities Global Summit on Tuesday that he was “concerned” by the lack of spending on new supply because the world was not ready to make the leap to clean energy and complete electrification.

“I actually think that there is a chance for oil to get up to those numbers,” he told the summit. “The issue for oil is not demand . . . the supply situation is quite concerning. We’ve gone from 15 years of reserves to 10 years. We’ve seen capital expenditure go from five years ago at $400bn a year to just $100bn a year. So therefore, there is a concern on the supply side . . . that I think will probably drive prices higher.”

Alex Sanna, the top oil trader at Glencore, also said that $100 oil was looking more likely.

“If you’re cutting supply without at the same time addressing your demand that is when you can get price dislocations,” Sanna said. “You’re really only one or two events away from a material spike in oil prices.”


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https://www.ft.com/content/b27ac2bb-69c ... 373b4de5ba

Oil has not traded above $100 a barrel since 2014, when a surge in supplies from the US shale sector brought the last so-called supercycle to an end. At the start of this century oil prices rallied from near $10 a barrel to reach above $100 in 2008, boosted by growing Chinese demand. Prices, while volatile, averaged around $100 a barrel for the next six years.

Russell Hardy, chief executive of Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trader, said $100 oil was a “possibility”, though he believes there should be enough spare capacity, with Opec and allies such as Russia still restricting supplies because of the pandemic.

“There’s 5m barrels of spare production being held back from the market today,” Hardy said.

But Jeff Currie at Goldman Sachs, one of the big proponents of oil’s rally last decade, has argued that commodities are looking at a new supercycle as government stimulus measures boost demand.

...................
https://www.ft.com/content/b27ac2bb-69c ... 373b4de5ba

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Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par energy_isere » 17 juil. 2021, 11:17

15 july 2021

Goldman Sachs has reiterated its $80 price forecast for Brent crude despite reports that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had reached a deal on oil production that will extend the OPEC+ deal until the end of next year.

Crude oil fell after the news of the Saudi-Emirati agreement broke as the uncertainty surrounding the future of the OPEC+ deal and OPEC itself disappeared. Yet, the agreement will mean more UAE oil coming to the market. It also means further pressure from the Emirates to boost production in the future.
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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... ement.html

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Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par energy_isere » 24 juil. 2021, 09:25

Goldman Sachs réduit ses prévisions pour le prix du baril de Brent au troisième trimestre

Agence Ecofin 21 juillet 2021

Le brut continue d’animer les marchés. Le Brent a perdu 5 dollars cette semaine en réponse aux craintes de l’impact de l’augmentation des cas de contamination au coronavirus et surtout à l’accord de l’OPEP+ pour doper son approvisionnement à partir d’août.

Le 20 juillet, la banque d’investissement américaine Goldman Sachs a revu à la baisse ses prévisions pour le prix du baril de Brent au troisième trimestre de 2021. Initialement, elle avait prévu que le baril s’échangerait à 80 dollars, mais désormais elle table sur 75 dollars. Ceci, en raison de l’augmentation des cas liés au variant Delta de la Covid-19 qui a commencé à peser sur la demande.

Ainsi, pendant le trimestre en cours, la demande devrait afficher -1,5 million de barils par jour par rapport à son pic de 2019. Au premier semestre, l’impact du variant Delta sur la demande (-1 million de barils par jour) avait été plus que compensé par le ralentissement de l’offre de l’OPEP+.

Goldman Sachs prévoit que la demande au dernier trimestre devrait afficher -1,7 million de barils par jour, par rapport au pic de 2019, ce qui suffira pour porter le prix du Brent à 80 dollars. « Les prix du pétrole pourraient continuer à fluctuer fortement dans les semaines à venir compte tenu des incertitudes entourant le variant Delta et de la lenteur de l’évolution de l’offre par rapport aux récents gains de la demande », a averti la banque.
https://www.agenceecofin.com/trade/2107 ... -trimestre

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