ARTE a écrit : ↑29 oct. 2022, 23:26
Questions de survie
Ouragans, feux de forêts, inondations, sécheresse, océans en péril... : les conséquences du réchauffement gagnent en violence, le dérèglement progressant à une vitesse sans doute trop rapide pour que la flore et la faune puissent s’adapter.
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/down ... pter11.pdf
Ouragans :
Identifying past trends in TC metrics remains a challenge due to the heterogeneous character of the historical instrumental data, which are known as ‘best-track’ data (Schreck et al., 2014). There is low confidence in most reported long-term (multi-decadal to centennial) trends in TC frequency- or intensity-based metrics due to changes in the technology used to collect the best-track data. This should not be interpreted as implying that no physical (real) trends exist, but rather as indicating that either the quality or the temporal length of the data is not adequate to provide robust trend detection statements, particularly in the presence of multi-decadal variability....
En bref; c'est compliqué de mesurer des tendances tellement les méthodes de comptage ont changé
et
However, there is still no consensus on the relative magnitude of human and natural influences on past changes in Atlantic hurricane activity, and particularly on which factor has dominated the observed increase (Ting et al., 2015) and it remains uncertain whether past changes in Atlantic TC activity are outside the range of natural variability.
En bref : il n'y a aucune certitude que les changements observés sont dûs à autre chose que la variabilité naturelle.
C'est le GIEC qui le dit.
Sécheresses :
In summary, the evaluation of ESMs, land surface and hydrological models for the simulation of droughts is complex, due to the regional scale of drought trends, their overall low signal-to-noise ratio, and the lack of observations in several regions, in particular for soil moisture and streamflow. There is medium confidence in the ability of ESMs to simulate trends and anomalies in precipitation deficits and AED, and also medium confidence in the ability of ESMs and hydrological models to simulate trends and anomalies in soil moisture and streamflow deficits, on global and regional scales.
En bref : c'est tres difficile d'avoir des données fiables sur les sécheresses et les modèles sont peu crédibles pour prédire les tendances.
There are only two AR6 regions where there is at least medium confidence that human-induced climate change has contributed to changes in meteorological droughts (Section 11.9). In South- Western South America, there is medium confidence that human- induced climate change has contributed to an increase in meteorological droughts (Boisier et al., 2016; Garreaud et al., 2020), while in Northern Europe, there is medium confidence that it has contributed to a decrease in meteorological droughts (Section 11.9; Gudmundsson and Seneviratne, 2016). In other AR6 regions, there is inconclusive evidence in the attribution of long-term trends, but a human contribution to single meteorological events or sub-regional trends has been identified in some instances
En bref : Il n'y a que deux régions où il y a une confiance moyenne que les sécheresses météorologiques auraient changé à cause de l'influence humaine : une "contribution" à l'augmentation au sud-ouest de l'Amérique du sud, et une contribution à une diminution en Europe du Nord (à noter que "contribution" ça veut dire que ça change aussi pour des raisons naturelles, et "confiance moyenne" c'est que c'est très incertain.) Ailleurs on n'a rien trouvé.
C"est le GIEC qui le dit.
Inondations :
Findings about anthropogenic influences vary between different regions and basins. For some flood events, the probability of high floods in the current climate is lower than in a climate without an anthropogenic influence (Wolski et al., 2014), while in other cases anthropogenic influence leads to more intense floods (Cho et al., 2016; Pall et al., 2017; van der Wiel et al., 2017; Philip et al., 2018a; Teufel et al., 2019). Factors such as land-cover change and river management can also increase the probability of high floods (Ji et al., 2020). These, along with model uncertainties and the lack of studies overall, suggest a low confidence in general statements to attribute changes in flood events to anthropogenic climate change.
En bref ; les incertitudes sur les modèles et le manque de données rendent impossibles une attribution claire de l'influence du RCA sur les inondations, parfois ça augmente, parfois ça diminue, mais on est incapable d'affirmer pourquoi. De plus
Attributing changes in heavy precipitation to anthropogenic activities (Section 11.4.4) cannot be readily translated to attributing changes in floods to human activities, because precipitation is only one of the multiple factors, albeit an important one, that affect floods. For example, Teufel et al. (2017) showed that, while human influence increased the odds of the flood-producing rainfall for the 2013 Alberta flood in Canada, it was not detected to have influenced the probability of the flood itself. Schaller et al. (2016) showed that human influence on the increase in the probability of heavy precipitation translated linearly into an increase in the resulting river flow of the Thames in the UK in winter 2014, but its contribution to the inundation was inconclusive
En bref : comme il y a eu en même temps que le RCA des aménagements des rivières (barrages; retenues etc ...) même une évolution des conditions météo peut ne pas se traduire par une fréquence accrue des inondations.
C'est le GIEC qui le dit.
donc " le dérèglement progressant à une vitesse sans doute trop rapide pour que la flore et la faune puissent s’adapter." ... à des changements dont on n'est même pas certain qu'ils existent vraiment !!!!
Bon j'arrête là, c'est comme les musulmans intégristes qui ne lisent même pas le Coran, ils ne lisent même pas ce qu'il y a dans le rapport du GIEC.
Zan, zendegi, azadi. Il parait que " je propage la haine du Hamas".