Rapporté par Dave Cohen dans Oildrum..
Je pense que ce discours est à marquer d'une pierre blanche dans l'histoire de la prise de conscience du PO !I will quote Ghanem at some length for the purposes of keeping an historical record at The Oil Drum — DC
Ghanem points out that oil prices at $50/barrel did nothing to stem demand. Neither did $70/barrel. He goes on to say —
"Having said that, I would like to turn now to the fundamental question: what is keeping the oil price high? The simple answer to this question should be first and foremost strong world oil demand. We can see this growing demand evident in China, India, and the United States, coupled with dwindling spare production and less economically viable recoverable reservoir capacities. Other factors, such as a lack of refining capacity, geopolitical uncertainties, market speculation, and natural disasters are also important....
Furthermore, serious concerns exist about future supply-demand imbalances. Some analysts are raising doubts about the collective abilities of the oil-exporting countries in general, and the OPEC Countries in particular, to deliver the increasing volumes of oil needed in the future to the world's biggest and fastest-growing economies, namely the US and the OECD, China, and India
The question of `peak oil' The question of peak oil output, which once was the concern of few individuals, has become a concern of some countries, as well as several organizations. Despite the fact that many are unhappy with Hubbert's peak oil predictions, his 1970 peak oil theory for the US turned out to be quite accurate, and for many, particularly the pessimists, his end-of-the-century peak oil predictions for the world also proved to be correct.
However, while some of the more pessimistic oil specialists are declaring that peak oil has already been passed, or at best is here now, others believe it is not going to arrive before 2010. Some optimists give the world a little more breathing space -- that is to say up to 2020, and perhaps even up to 2030. However, all in all, most would appear to agree that peak oil output is not very far away for all of us. It could take place sometime within the next decade or so, which in fact means that there is not much time left for a world economy to be driven largely by oil.
Furthermore, under any of these scenarios, and since peak oil output is not about the time at which oil will run out, but the time at which production can no longer be increased to cope with increased demand, it seems the only way the oil price can go is up.
This conclusion seems to be in line with the view held by the peak oil output advocates who argue that the ongoing oil price rises are mainly due to supply-demand imbalances. This is because we are at, or near, the production peak of world oil, if not on the downward slope of Hubbert's peak curve. This is not to deny the role of other factors (such as geopolitical), but only to stress the importance of supply and demand for crude oil as the prime factor in determining the price of the commodity.
And, Ghanem on future oil prices —
Some analysts now say that nothing short of a major worldwide economic recession in the major consuming markets can turn down the price of oil. So, what can we conclude from this? First, it is highly likely that $20/b or even $30/b oil is a thing of the past.
Second, if current supply-demand imbalances, both for crude oil and refined petroleum products, persist -- and there is no reason for this situation not to persist -- then one can only conclude that a return to $40-50/b seems quite unlikely. Even though there are some who would still disagree and would hope to see the price of oil falling -- even below $40/b -- they also say that the history of the oil industry is characterized by volatile changes in price.
Third, $70/b plus oil may be quite likely if the world economy continues to grow at the rates experienced in 2004 and 2005. These rates may cause demand for oil to increase proportionally and it may even start to exceed available supply.
