On rapelle que ce pays produit présentement prés de 9 millions de baril/jour (tableau ASPO de Nov 2005)
http://www.dawn.com/2005/12/11/ebr5.htm
Saudi oil revenues to touch $163 billion
By Syed Rashid Husain
RIYADH, Dec 10: The Saudi oil revenues this year are expected to reach $163 billion – a 22 year high- resulting in a current account balance of $101 billion, the latest projections released by the Saudi American Bank (SAMBA) reveal here on Friday.
A gradual yet continuous reduction of government debt to SR595 billion, or 49 per cent of GDP, and a continuous build-up of Central Bank foreign assets have also been reported, which will stand at $141 billion by the year-end. For each SR100 within the Saudi monetary system, the country holds SR150 in foreign exchange reserves, says National Commercial Bank’s chief economist Dr. Said Al-Shaikh. The Kingdom is now projected to register 4.6 per cent economic growth per annum during 2005-2009, backed by an expected 1.5 per cent rise each year in the value of oil exports. GDP is projected to rise to SR895.2 billion by 2009-up by 25 per cent on 2004. The Kingdom’s inflation target is 0.6 per cent. However, the actual growth could even be much higher. Saudi officials suggest that Saudi Arabia plans to raise oil output capacity by 14 per cent to 12.5 million b/d by 2009, and is deploying very conservative estimates to guard against any drop in crude oil earnings.
Riyadh is, indeed, aware of the mathematics of equation. The underlying upward trend is, thus, reflected in the government’s raising of public sector employees’ salaries across the board by 15 per cent. The move in this summer represented the first such increase for more than 20 years and is an indication of government confidence that oil revenues will remain high.
But despite the budgetary surplus, the Saudi government still appears determined to continue its emphasis on stimulating the private sector and foreign direct investment to enable these to act as the locomotives of economic growth.
Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency Governor, Hamad Al-Sayari, says the country’s reform programme has helped the Kingdom’s economy to register strong growth over the last three years with the substantial expansion in monetary supply and bank loans showing the increasingly dynamic role of the private sector.
The government has embarked on a comparatively higher degree of social spending particularly on education and health as well as investments designed to diversify from oil. Multi-billion dollar industrial expansions are under way with petrochemicals and gas related projects to the fore. Plans for major new projects to exploit solid minerals, including phosphates and aluminium production, are also well advanced. The Saudi gold production is also planned to be doubled over the next few years. These and other industrial ventures will lessen the dependence of Saudi economy on oil even though oil production increases.
According to the Saudi Economics & Planning Ministry the total projected value of oil exports in 2009 will represent 34.9 per cent of GDP against 39.7 per cent in 2004. In cognizant of these facts, the IMF in its annual review of Saudi Arabia, published a few days back, underlines the strength of the Saudi economy saying the Kingdom should see its gross domestic product rise over six per cent this year.
The world’s biggest oil producer should also see its current account surplus widen to 30 per cent of GDP this year while its fiscal surplus hits 15.5 per cent of GDP as a result of windfall export revenues, the IMF said.
Flush with cash, Saudi Arabia now faces challenges on how to manage the windfall revenues without derailing reforms, that, the IMF said, have helped the non-oil sector growth, created job opportunities for Saudis, and improved the country’s resistance to oil shocks.
“The favourable fiscal outlook offers both opportunities and challenges over the medium term,” the Washington-based lender said, encouraging Saudi Arabia to establish and deposit surplus money into investment funds for future needs.
In the review, the IMF praised Saudi Arabia for playing “a constructive role in support of oil market stability,” and expressed support for the country’s plans to expand oil production and refining activity if global demand stays strong.
