Le Cuivre

[energy_isere]

Copper price heads for biggest weekly gain in two months

MINING.COM Staff Writer | April 16, 2021 |

Copper was on track for its biggest weekly rise in two months on Friday after solid US and Chinese economic data pushed global stock markets to record highs and several investment banks predicted higher prices for the metal.

Benchmark copper on LME was up 0.4% at $9,317.50 a tonne in official trading, up around 4% this week and near February’s peak of $9,617, the highest since 2011.

Copper for delivery in May was down 1.2% in afternoon trade, with futures at $4.1675 per pound ($9,165 a tonne) on the Comex market in New York.

“The Chinese data are only really good at first glance … momentum has cooled to some extent,” Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann told Reuters.

Optimism on stock markets was supporting metals and strong demand during the second quarter — China’s traditional construction season — could lift copper further in the short term, but prices would fall later in the year, Briesemann said.

The Chinese economy grew by a record 18.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, but the expansion is expected to moderate later this year. Industrial output slowed in March to 14.1%.

In the US, retail sales rose by the most in 10 months in March.

Goldman Sachs this week raised its 12-month target for copper to $11,000 a tonne, while Citi recommended clients take on bullish copper exposure over the next few weeks.

Goldman Sachs metals strategist Nicholas Snowdon said environmental policies will drive a capex boom on par with the 1970s and 2000s over the course of the next decade and copper is the core of the green energy transition:

“We estimate nearly $16 trillion would have to go into green-focused infrastructure to achieve decarbonisation targets, compared to just $10 trillion in China during the last supercycle.”

https://www.mining.com/copper-price-hea ... -february/

[energy_isere]

Goldman Sachs voir le prix du Cuivre monter très fort d'ici 2025 vu l' énorme supplément de demande venant des véhicules électriques, stations de recharge, solaire et éolien.

Goldman Sachs calls copper “the new oil”

BY: TRISH SAYWELL APRIL 16, 2021

In a new report on copper, global investment bank Goldman Sachs says meeting the Paris climate goals and supporting the green transition away from fossil fuels and towards electrification will see a surge in copper demand and forecasts a long-term supply gap of 8.2 million tonnes of the metal by 2030, the “highest on record” and “twice the size of the gap that triggered the bull market in copper in the early 2000s.”

The authors — Nicholas Snowdon, Daniel Sharp and Jeffrey Currie — estimate that by 2030, copper demand from green electrification “will grow nearly 600% to 5.4Mt [million tonnes] in our base case and 900% to 8.7Mt in the case of hyper adoption of green technologies.”

According to their analysis, the amount of ‘green’ copper produced in 2020 was about 1 million tonnes or 3% of total global copper. In their models, that could rise to 2.6 million tonnes, or 9% of total global copper, by 2025, and to 5.4 million tonnes or 16% of total global copper demand by 2030. “We estimate that green demand will grow at an average annual growth rate of 20% y/y [year-on-year] in the 2020s, generating just under 500kt [500,000 tonnes] per year of growth in demand volumes.”

“Crucially, the copper market as it currently stands is not prepared for this demand environment,” the analysts continued. “The market is already tight as pandemic stimulus (particularly in China) have supported a resurgence in demand, set against stagnant supply conditions. Moreover, a decade of poor returns and ESG concerns have curtailed investment in future supply growth, bringing the market the closest it’s ever been to peak supply.”

The analysts argue that the mining industry “remains wary of a pivot towards growth after the price collapse in the mid-2010s severely punished any front-foot producers,” and despite the fact that copper prices are up 80% over the last year, “there have been no material greenfield project approvals.”

The report also notes that it takes two to four years for brownfield projects (expansions of existing mines) and as many as eight years for new greenfield projects. “This long lead time for the majority of copper supply, combined with the mining sector’s resistance towards new capex, leaves the copper market running out of runway to secure the necessary supply to meet demand in the second half of the decade. … Given the size of deficits starting from the same point, approvals and investments in mine projects have to start now.”

Goldman forecasts a copper price of US$15,000 per tonne by 2025, up from the US$9,000 per tonne today. It estimates prices for the metal will average US$9,675 per tonne this year; US$11,875 per tonne in 2022; US$12,000 per tonne in 2023; and US$14,000 per tonne in 2024.

The report also drills down into three drivers of green copper demand: electric vehicles (EVs); solar power and wind power. The bank estimates that 5.1 million EVs likely will be sold in 2021, rising to 31.51 million EVs in the year 2030. It also forecasts that 30 million charging units will be installed in 2030.

Goldman estimates “EV-related demand to amount to 2.4 million tonnes of copper by 2030 (vs. 210kt in 2020) with an additional 153kt of copper demand coming from charging stations (vs 14kt in 2020). We expect this demand to grow at a rate of 31% a year for the remainder of the decade.”

Copper demand for solar power, meanwhile, is expected to rise from 400kt this year to 1.6Mt a year in 2030, Goldman says, while copper demand for wind turbines is going to triple from 400kt per year now to 1.3Mt per year by 2030.

“As we have long-argued, moving the global economy toward net zero emissions remains a core driver of the structural bull market in commodities demand, in which green metals—copper in particular—are critical,” they summarized.

“We estimate that by mid-decade this growth in green demand alone will match, and then quickly surpass, the incremental demand China generated during the 2000s. Ripple effects into non-green channels mean the 2020s are expected to be the strongest phase of volume growth in global copper demand in history.”

https://www.northernminer.com/news/gold ... 003830196/

[energy_isere]

Le cours du Cuivre revient sur son plus haut de 2011 (Kitco charts) :



https://www.kitco.com/charts/interactiv ... 7862400000

[energy_isere]

Rio Tinto starts débute un programme d'exploration de Cuivre Solwezi en Zambie

Rio Tinto starts exploration on Solwezi project

MINING.COM Staff Writer | April 21, 2021

Rio Tinto has started its initial 2021 exploration campaign on Midnight Sun’s Solwezi licenses in Zambia, part of an earn-in and joint venture agreement the companies signed in April 2020.

The initial 2021 work program budget is $3.2 million and is expected to be completed in late June.

Rio Tinto’s planned initial work includes 4,000 metres of diamond and 1,900 metres of air core drilling on the Mitu trend; 1,200 metres of diamond drilling to test high grade copper anomalies, identified in the Q4 2020 air core drill program, on the north side of the Solwezi Dome at the Gameno (formerly Kifubwe) Prospect; and 1,600 metres of reverse circulation and 1,000 metres of air core drilling, and further mapping at Dumbwa to test a 10+ kilometre copper soil anomaly.

Solwezi comprises two individual exploration licences totalling 506 square kilometres.

The project is situated on the Zambia-Congo copper belt and is immediately adjacent to Africa’s largest copper mining complex, First Quantum’s Kansanshi mine.

https://www.mining.com/rio-tinto-commen ... i-project/

[energy_isere]

Le cuivre dépasse 10.000 dollars la tonne, une première en dix ans

AFP•29/04/2021

Le cours du cuivre a franchi jeudi la barre des 10.000 dollars la tonne pour la première fois depuis février 2011, porté par la forte demande chinoise et la faiblesse du dollar.

Le cours du métal rouge, baromètre de l'économie mondiale, a brièvement dépassé jeudi à 13H05 GMT (15H05 à Paris) le seuil des 10.000 dollars la tonne sur le London Metal Exchange (LME), après quatre séances consécutives de hausse et un gain de plus de 25% depuis le 1er janvier.

Vers 13H15 GMT, la tonne s'échangeait pour 9.963 dollars.

Pour Anna Stablum, de Marex Spectron, le cuivre est principalement "soutenu par la faiblesse du dollar", propre à encourager les achats de métaux libellés en devise américaine pour les investisseurs munis d'autres monnaies.

Le billet vert s'est en effet déprécié de plus 2,5% depuis le début du mois d'avril face à un panier constitué d'autres grandes monnaies.

Neil Wilson, de Markets.com, voit lui le fruit d'un "mélange de hausse de la demande et de problèmes d'approvisionnement au Chili", premier producteur mondial.

L'appétit de métal rouge provient principalement de Chine qui engloutit la moitié de la production de la planète. Le Groupe d'étude international du cuivre (ICSG) a chiffré le mois dernier à +13% l'augmentation de la demande apparente de cuivre en Chine sur l'ensemble de l'année 2020.

Et ce n'est pas parti pour s'arrêter puisque Pékin a annoncé mi-avril une hausse record de sa croissance économique au premier trimestre (+18,3% sur un an).

Des signaux de perturbation de l'offre alimentaient également la hausse des cours, pointait aussi Anna Stablum, mettant en avant plus tôt dans la semaine des manifestations au Chili dans les secteurs minier et portuaire.

"Le précédent sommet historique de février 2011 est probablement parti pour tomber", a souligné Daniel Briesemann, analyste de Commerzbank, avant qu'une "correction ne s'impose".

La tonne de cuivre avait atteint le 15 février 2011 un prix depuis inégalé de 10.190 dollars la tonne sur le LME.

https://www.boursorama.com/actualite-ec ... 6b4efed70b

[energy_isere]

en relation avec ce post du 4 avril 2021 http://www.oleocene.org/phpBB3/viewtopi ... 1#p2316711

RDC : Ivanhoe veut rénover la turbine 5 du complexe hydroélectrique d’Inga II pour alimenter Kamoa-Kakula

Agence Ecofin 26 avril 2021

Les compagnies minières ont de plus en plus recours au renouvelable pour alimenter leurs opérations. Avec ce nouvel accord, Ivanhoe Mines continue une stratégie qui l’a déjà vue lancer la rénovation de la centrale hydroélectrique Mwadingusha pour alimenter sa future mine de cuivre Kamoa-Kakula.

En RDC, Ivanhoe Mines Energy a signé un protocole d’accord avec la Société Nationale d’Électricité afin de moderniser la turbine 5 du complexe hydroélectrique d’Inga II. C’est l’annonce faite le 26 avril par la société mère, Ivanhoe Mines, qui précise que ce partenariat public-privé lui permettra d’obtenir les 162 MW d’énergie produite par l’installation afin d’alimenter le complexe de cuivre Kamoa-Kakula et son usine de traitement associée, tous deux en construction actuellement.

« Ce nouvel accord d’approvisionnement en électricité est une étape importante dans notre parcours de durabilité, car il fournira à Kamoa-Kakula un accès prioritaire à un total de 240 mégawatts d’électricité propre et renouvelable provenant des turbines modernisées des centrales hydroélectriques de Mwadingusha et d’Inga II », a commenté Ben Munanga, DG d’Ivanhoe Mines Energy.

Rappelons en effet que la société a déjà entamé la rénovation d’une autre centrale hydroélectrique, celle de Mwadingusha en l’occurrence, afin de participer également à l’alimentation de la mine. Cette dernière doit générer 78 MW pour les deux premières phases de production de cuivre à Kamoa-Kakula.

https://www.agenceecofin.com/electricit ... moa-kakula

[energy_isere]

Projet d' extension de la mine de Cuivre Kristeneberg en Suède pour un cout de 150 millions de dollars :

Kristeneberg mine expansion to cost Boliden $150m

Canadian Mining Journal Staff | April 28, 2021

Swedish miner Boliden expects to spend approximately $150 million (1.25 billion krona) expanding its Kristenberg copper mine toward the Rävliden ore zone. The expansion will help boost mill throughput to 1.8 million tonnes annually in the Boliden area of Sweden.

The project is conditional on receiving the necessary permit. The company has submitted its application for expanded production to the Swedish Land and Environment Court.

SIGN UP FOR THE COPPER DIGEST
When the permit is received, a new ramp and new crushing station will be built. Production could start as early as 2023. The project will both extend the life of the Kristenberg mine and improve concentrator utilization.

In the meantime, Boliden is making investments in infrastructure and water treatment to support increased output.

The Rävliden copper-zinc-lead zone contains 8.4 million tonnes of inferred and indicated resources. The area also has potential to expand the mineralization.

https://www.mining.com/kristeneberg-min ... iden-150m/

[energy_isere]

vidéo 6mn Ecorama sur le Cuivre

ECORAMA•03/05/2021
Le métal rouge vient de dépasser les 10 000 dollars la tonne. Du jamais vu depuis 10 ans. Quelles sont les raisons de cette hausse de 25% depuis le début de l'année ? Cette envolée peut-elle se poursuivre ? Le point de vue de John Plassard, spécialiste en investissement chez Mirabaud. Ecorama du 30 avril 2021, présenté par David Jacquot sur Boursorama.com

vidéo : https://www.boursorama.com/videos/actua ... 1318830202

[energy_isere]

Et voila, record historique pour le prix du Cuivre.

Le cuivre a touché vers 9H40 GMT (11H40 à Paris) 10.311,00 dollars la tonne sur le London Metal Exchange (LME), battant son précédent record de février 2011

extrait de https://www.boursorama.com/actualite-ec ... efb5f53496

[energy_isere]

La production mondiale de cuivre augmentera de 3,5 % en 2021 et de 3,7 % en 2022 (ICSG)

Agence Ecofin 5 mai 2021

La semaine dernière, le cuivre a franchi pour la première fois depuis 2011 la barre des 10 000 $ la tonne, portée notamment par la croissance chinoise et des prévisions de hausse de la demande mondiale. Sans tout à fait contredire ces estimations, un nouveau rapport de l’ICSG nuance la situation.

International Copper Study Group estime que la production minière de cuivre dans le monde augmentera de 3,5% cette année, avant de croitre de 3,7% en 2022. Cette annonce a été faite le 3 mai, après une rencontre organisée en ligne les 28 et 29 avril 2021 par cette organisation intergouvernementale qui regroupe États producteurs et consommateurs du métal rouge.

Alors que les trois dernières années ont été marquées par une croissance relativement modeste de la production, ces prévisions optimistes de l’ICSG sont motivées par l’entrée en production de grands projets cette année. C’est le cas par exemple de Kamoa-Kakula en RDC d’ici un mois, ou de Spence-SGO déjà en production au Pérou. Plusieurs mines de cuivre moins grandes entreront aussi en service dans les prochains mois.

Dans le même temps et malgré les prévisions alarmistes de certains analystes, la consommation de cuivre devrait augmenter de 0,2 % seulement en 2021, puis de 3 % en 2022. Par ailleurs, contrairement au déficit de 600 000 tonnes constaté en 2020, l’ICSG estime que 2021 sera marqué par un excédent de 80 000 tonnes de cuivre raffiné, contre 110 000 tonnes en 2022.

Alors que le prix du cuivre flirte avec 10 000 $ la tonne ces derniers jours, il sera intéressant d’observer l’effet de ces estimations sur le cours du métal rouge. Si la demande de cuivre est en effet sur une pente ascendante, portée par son importance dans la réussite de la transition énergétique, une offre suffisante pourrait en effet limiter la hausse des prix.

Pour rappel, la RDC et la Zambie sont les deux premiers producteurs africains de cuivre.

https://www.agenceecofin.com/cuivre/050 ... -2022-icsg

[energy_isere]

La Chine bat son record d' importation annuel de Cuivre rafinné. 4.4 millions de tonnes en 2020 :

China’s super-charged buying reshapes the copper market

Reuters | May 5, 2021

China’s net imports of refined copper surged by 38% to 4.4 million tonnes last year, breaking all historical records.

SIGN UP FOR THE COPPER DIGEST

The country’s call on metal from the rest of the world was a million tonnes higher than the previous peak in 2018 and 1.2 million tonnes more than was imported in 2019.

This extraordinary buying spree has propelled the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price from its covid-19 low of $4,371 per tonne in March last year to above $10,000 per tonne, last trading at $9,985.
......................

https://www.mining.com/web/home-chinas- ... er-market/

[energy_isere]

suite de ce post du 4 janvier 2020 http://www.oleocene.org/phpBB3/viewtopi ... 2#p2294022

Biden officials undecided on fate of Minnesota’s Twin Metals project

Reuters | May 5, 2021

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said on Wednesday that the White House has not decided on the fate of the Twin Metals copper mining project in Minnesota, as it works to balance economic growth and strong opposition from environmentalists.


Vilsack’s comments were among the first from a senior official in President Joe Biden’s administration on the proposed underground mine, which environmentalists fear would permanently mar the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness on the U.S.-Canada border.

Twin Metals and its supporters, including several Minnesota labor unions, have said the project can be constructed safely and in a way that boosts the region’s economy.

The Biden administration is “trying to find the balance between preserving a pristine area, and at the same time looking for ways in which job growth, economic growth can take place in rural areas. And that’s what we’re going to attempt to do. There are no final decisions being made on this,” Vilsack told reporters in a White House briefing.

The mine would, if built, be a major supplier of copper to the United States as Biden aims to build more electric vehicles, which use twice as much of the red metal as those with internal combustion engines.

Representatives for Twin Metals, which is controlled by Chile’s Antofagasta Plc, said the company expects the regulatory review process “to remain fair and based on science and law in the years ahead.”
..........................

https://www.mining.com/web/biden-offici ... e-project/

[energy_isere]

Codelco va lancer le projet d' extension de la mine de cuivre Salvador qui deviendra open pit. 1.4 milliards de $ d'investissements.

Codelco to break ground on $1.4 billion Salvador copper project

Reuters | May 12, 2021

Chile’s state-owned Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, announced on Wednesday it would soon break ground on a $1.4 billion project to extend the life of its aging Salvador division thru 2068.

The Rajo Inca project aims to convert Salvador from an underground mine to an open-pit, and requires the company first strips away rock covering the mineral deposits, Codelco said in a statement.

“We will begin work in the next few weeks, in order to reach production of 90,000 tons in the first half of 2023,” the firm said in a statement.

Codelco is in the midst of a 10-year, $40 billion initiative to upgrade its sprawling but aging mines, which have suffered in recent years from sharply falling ore grades.

Salvador has been in operation since 1959 and has the lowest productivity of any of the copper miner’s deposits, producing just 50,600 tonnes, just under 3% of Codelco’s total output, last year.

The company’s board of directors in January approved the plan and its financing.

https://www.mining.com/web/codelco-to-b ... r-project/

[kercoz]

Et voila, record historique pour le prix du Cuivre.

Qd je contrôlais les gravières, carriéres etc , avec des km de tapis roulants, ils avaient déja remplacé les cables de mise à la terre qui étaient en cu nu (!), diam 8 mm par de l'alu multibrin de 35....à cause des vols nocturnes.

[energy_isere]

oups ! 8 tonnes de Cuivre par MW d'éolien offshore !

Offshore Wind Requires 63,000lbs Of Copper Per Turbine

By Irina Slav - May 17, 2021

Renewables—and especially offshore wind—are set to drive a surge in copper demand that will push prices even higher, as the amount of copper required per wind turbine is staggering, at 63,000 pounds.

A week ago, the basic metal surged to a record high because of supply chain disruptions. By the end of the week, however, it had cooled off on efforts by China to rein in the commodity market rally.

Now copper’s on the way up again, and this is likely to be a steady trend.

The reason for this is renewable energy—and more specifically wind energy—researcher Mirela Petkova wrote for Energy Monitor in a recent article. Offshore wind turbines require 8 literal tons of copper for every megawatt of generation capacity, Petkova noted, adding, citing data from the International Energy Agency, that “An average turbine of 3.6MW, which can power more than 3,300 average EU households, will contain close to 29 tonnes (t) of copper.”

This upward trend in demand for copper will only intensify in the coming years as the world expands its renewable power generation capacity. It is likely to be supported by the constant threat of a supply disruption like the one in Chile that spurred the latest reversal in copper’s fortunes.

After last week the rally among basic metals lost some steam because of China’s efforts in that direction, a wage dispute between BHP Group and workers at its remote operations center in Chile changed that. Bloomberg reported earlier today that 97 percent of the workers had decided to strike, which would mean a supply disruption that could last a while as the company negotiates with them in a round mediated by the Chilean government.

There is also a shortage of new supply coming in even as demand grows. According to Glencore’s Ivan Glasenberg, the tightness of supply is likely to continue until copper prices rose as much as 50 percent from current levels.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... rbine.html