Le Cuivre

Discussions traitant de l'impact du pic pétrolier sur l'économie.

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Re: Le Cuivre

Message par energy_isere » 23 oct. 2021, 10:57

Garantir l’approvisionnement mondial en cuivre nécessitera davantage de volonté politique (Freeport-McMoRan)

Agence Ecofin 22 oct 2021

Véhicules électriques, éolien et solaire sont des secteurs en plein boom grâce à la transition énergétique et qui consomment beaucoup de cuivre. En produire davantage est donc nécessaire, encore faut-il que la réglementation favorise l’investissement dans l’exploration et l’exploitation minière.

« Le monde a besoin de plus de cuivre. Et pourtant, plus de cuivre, jusqu’à ce que la technologie fasse une percée, va entraîner plus d’émissions de carbone ». C’est ce qu’a déclaré jeudi 21 octobre, Richard Adkerson (photo), PDG de Freeport-McMoRan, demandant donc l’assouplissement des règles régissant l’ouverture de nouvelles mines en Amérique du Nord, mais aussi dans l’Union européenne, afin d’augmenter la production mondiale de plusieurs métaux nécessaires à la transition énergétique, dont le cuivre.

À cause des restrictions écologiques en vigueur dans ces deux régions, l’exploitation de leurs réserves cuprifères est impossible ou nécessiterait un capital si important que les projets deviendraient économiquement non viables.

Le 20 octobre par exemple, le Service des forêts des Etats-Unis a proposé d’interdire pendant 20 ans l’exploitation minière dans une région de l’Etat du Minnesota, ce qui bloquerait, entre autres, le développement du projet de cuivre-nickel Twin Metals piloté par le géant minier chilien Antofagasta.

Il faut rappeler que c’est la dernière d’une série d’oppositions de l’administration « proclimat » du président Biden à des projets miniers, considérés comme polluants et néfastes pour l’écosystème.

Le casse-tête du déficit

Selon le dirigeant de Freeport, la faiblesse de l’offre mondiale de cuivre induite par l’absence de nouvelles mines, risque pourtant de saper les efforts de décarbonisation en cours dans le monde. « Il va y avoir un moment où le monde va être très court en cuivre », poursuit M. Adkerson, cité par Reuters, quelques jours après l’avertissement donné par la bourse des métaux de Londres (LME).

En effet la semaine dernière, les stocks de cuivre disponibles dans le système mondial d’entrepôts de la place boursière britannique, sont en effet tombés à des niveaux plus vus depuis 25 ans.

Qu’il s’agisse de véhicules électriques, de l’éolien ou du solaire, il faut dire que tous les secteurs à la pointe de la transition énergétique ont besoin du métal rouge. Robert Friedland, patron d’Ivanhoe Mines, compagnie active dans la production de cuivre en RDC, résume d’ailleurs très bien la situation avec sa formule : « Tout est cuivre, cuivre, cuivre, cuivre, cuivre, cuivre ».

Nonobstant un changement de réglementation à propos de la construction de nouvelles mines dans les régions suscitées, le recours à des juridictions minières jusque-là sous-explorées apparait comme la seule solution actuellement disponible pour tenter de combler un déficit de cuivre qui devrait atteindre 10 millions de tonnes d’ici 2030. À ce jeu, les pays africains peuvent faire partie des vainqueurs, avec en tête les deux premiers producteurs que sont la RDC et la Zambie.

Les premiers signes de ce regain d’intérêt pour le continent sont déjà visibles avec les rumeurs annonçant un retour du géant minier BHP dans le secteur minier africain, à travers le rachat du projet de cuivre Western Foreland en RDC. D’autres pays en Afrique australe, qui disposent d’un potentiel cuprifère, à l’instar du Botswana et de l’Afrique du Sud, pourront également profiter de cette ruée vers le cuivre.
https://www.agenceecofin.com/cuivre/221 ... rt-mcmoran

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Re: Le Cuivre

Message par energy_isere » 24 oct. 2021, 10:46

suite de ce post du 20 juin 2021 viewtopic.php?p=2321245#p2321245

Le chinois Zijin Mining démarre la phase de production de la mine de Cuivre et d'Or de Ukaru Peki en Serbie.

Zijin opens Serbia’s largest copper mine

Cecilia Jamasmie | October 22, 2021

Image
ukaru Peki upper zone. (Image courtesy of SRK Consulting.)

Zijin Mining, China’s largest gold miner and one of the country’s top copper producers, has begun operations at its Cukaru Peki copper and gold mine in Serbia.


The asset, part of the Timok project, is expected to make the Balkan country Europe’s second-largest copper producer.

Zijin has poured $474 million to date into the new underground mine and said the Upper Zone is designed to process 3.3 million tonnes of ore per annum.

“The first part of the project involves mining an ultra high-grade ore body. It is expected to produce 50,000 tonnes of copper,” Zijin said.

Cukaru Peki was originally slated to begin production in the summer of 2021, with an initial average copper output of 91,000 tonnes a year and annual gold production of about 200,000 ounces. It is now expected to gradually increment output until reaching a peak of 135,000 tonnes of copper a year.

Serbia’s government anticipates the country’s booming mining sector will start generating between 4% and 5% of its total GDP in less than 10 years, a significant increase from its current 2%.

In 2018 Zijin Mining became Serbia’s strategic partner in RTB Bor, the country’s sole copper complex, pledging to invest $1.9 billion over six years in return for a 63% stake.

Since then, it has invested $142 million to improve local ecology and environment, which is more than double of the amount agreed in a strategic agreement with the company, according to Zijin.

The Zijin-RTB Boor venture unfolded as Serbia deepened its ties with China despite concern from the European Union, which the Balkan state is trying to join.

RTB Bor, in eastern Serbia, was key in the development of Serbia’s industrial sector before the collapse of communist Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. However, it later became a burden on the country’s struggling economy because of malpractices and international sanctions during the regime of late president Slobodan Milosevic.

The company had to temporarily halt work at the mine in April due to an alleged breach of the country’s environmental standards.

The Serbian unit was ordered to complete a wastewater treatment plant on priority at the mine to avoid polluting the River Pek, a tributary of the Danube.

Key market
Serbia Zijin Copper is in the midst of overhauling and expanding its four mines and a smelter. The plan also includes improving environmental protection in the heavily polluted Bor region in the east.

The newly open mine is also expected to boost Serbia’s gold reserves from an already record-high 37 tonnes, President Aleksandar Vucic said on Friday. The move seeks to prepare for the energy crisis rattling Europe.

China has spent billions of euros in Serbia, as part of its belt and road initiative to open new foreign trade links for local companies.

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Re: Le Cuivre

Message par energy_isere » 24 oct. 2021, 12:07

suite de ce post du 11 aout 2019 : viewtopic.php?p=2286067#p2286067

Bataille judiciaire entre Rio Tinto et les tribus Apaches en Arizona concernant les terres prévues pour un projet de mine de Cuivre.
US appeals court hints at support for Rio’s Resolution copper mine

Reuters | October 22, 2021

A federal appeal court on Friday questioned whether it had the power to override an act of Congress that gave Rio Tinto Ltd land in Arizona for its Resolution copper mine, which has been challenged by Native Americans.

“It’d be nice if Congress or someone would make more sense out of this,” said U.S. Circuit Judge Marsha Berzon, as the court appeared likely to support the U.S. government plan to give Rio Tinto the Arizona land

Apache Stronghold, a group of Native Americans and conservationists, asked the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco to overturn a lower court’s ruling that allowed the government to give Rio the land.
..................

The Apaches have said that giving this land away to Rio Tinto effectively forces them to violate their religious beliefs, since they would not be able to worship at the site.
...................
https://www.mining.com/web/us-appeals-c ... pper-mine/

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Re: Le Cuivre

Message par energy_isere » 07 nov. 2021, 09:03

suite de ce post du 3 juin 2021 viewtopic.php?p=2320929#p2320929

La mine de Cuivre de Pintp Valley, Arizona pourra fonctionner jusque en 2039
Capstone secures final approvals to extend Pinto Valley mine life to 2039

By NS Energy Staff Writer 05 Nov 2021

The extension of the mine life of the asset in Arizona is expected to result in the production of 2.5 billion pounds of copper

Capstone Mining has secured final approvals from the US Forest Service for a new mine plan of operations for the Pinto Valley copper mine in Arizona, US.

The plan, which was approved by the Tonto National Forest (TNF), extends the life of mine to 2039, said the Canadian base metals mining company.

Capstone Mining SVP and COO Brad Mercer said that the approval from the TNF took over five years.

According to the company, the extension of the mine life is expected to result in 2.5 billion pounds of copper. Besides, it will save nearly 700 jobs in Gila County and contribute to the economic activities of the area over the next 20 years.
....................
Earlier this year, the company wrapped up a $31m optimisation programme at the open-pit copper mine with an aim to drive higher throughput and higher recovery.

As part of the PV3 optimisation programme, the company replaced a ball mill and had upgraded tailings thickeners, while recommissioning the molybdenum plant.

Capstone Mining has been carrying out another study at the mine, called PV4, to assess its long-term growth potential of measured and indicated resources of more than 1.36 billion tonnes at 0.30% copper.
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/news/c ... mine-news/#

Image
Capstone Mining’s Pinto Valley copper-molybdenum mine in Arizona, 125 km east of Phoenix. Credit: Capstone Mining

https://www.mining.com/capstones-pinto- ... d-to-2039/

Image
Copper cathodes at Capstone’s Pinto Valley mine in Arizona. Image from Jetti Resources.

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Re: Le Cuivre

Message par energy_isere » 19 nov. 2021, 23:35

RDC : Kamoa Copper engage le chinois Nerin Engineering pour construire la plus grande fonderie de cuivre d’Afrique

Agence Ecofin 19 nov 2021

En juin 2021, Ivanhoe Mines a annoncé la conclusion d’un accord avec la fonderie chinoise de Lualaba pour transformer une partie du concentré de cuivre produit à Kamoa-Kakula. D’ici trois ans au moins, la société disposera de sa propre fonderie et exportera alors davantage de cuivre blister.

La China Nerin Engineering construira, en RDC, une fonderie de cuivre d’une capacité nominale annuelle de 500 000 tonnes au profit de la mine Kamoa-Kakula. C’est l’annonce faite le 18 novembre par Ivanhoe Mines, qui précise que cette installation sera la plus grande d’Afrique.

Le coût du projet est estimé à 700 millions $, lesquels fonds proviendront des flux de trésorerie de Kamoa-Kakula. Les travaux d’ingénierie et de construction devraient durer environ trois ans.

« Nerin possède le personnel et l’expertise dans le pays pour fournir une fonderie sur site de tout premier ordre qui sera parmi les plus grandes de ce type dans le monde. Elle a construit avec succès la fonderie de cuivre locale de Lualaba, à laquelle nous envoyons environ un tiers de notre production actuelle de concentré », a déclaré Mark Farren, PDG de Kamoa Copper.

Notons que la fonderie sera installée près des usines de traitement des phases 1 et 2 de Kamoa-Kakula et pourra traiter la « majorité du concentré de cuivre » produit par ces installations. Elle sera dotée, apprend-on, de la technologie de pointe du finlandais Metso Outotec permettant de produire du cuivre blister pur à 99 %, avec des émissions de CO2 minimales.

Pour rappel, la construction de cette fonderie correspond aux injonctions de l’Etat congolais concernant la transformation locale des divers minerais extraits dans le pays, afin que celui-ci puisse tirer davantage de bénéfices du secteur minier. Pour le moment, le concentré de cuivre qui n’est pas traité à la fonderie de Lualaba est exporté directement, grâce à une dérogation accordée par les autorités.
https://www.agenceecofin.com/cuivre/191 ... -d-afrique

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Re: Le Cuivre

Message par energy_isere » 21 nov. 2021, 12:33

suite de ce post du 29 aout 2021 viewtopic.php?p=2325517#p2325517
Rajo Inca Copper Project

The Rajo Inca project seeks to extend the productive life of the existing Salvador copper mining operation in the Atacama region of Chile by 47 years, until 2070.

Operational since 1959, the Salvador mine is owned and operated by Chilean state-owned copper miner Codelco, which is the world’s biggest copper producing company.

Salvador is a combined open-pit and underground copper mining complex comprising the Inca underground mine, and Campamento Antiguo and Quebrada M open-pit mines.

Rajo Inca will convert Salvador into a single open-pit mining operation and increase its production capacity from 60,000t to 90,000t of fine copper a year.

Image

Construction works on the £1bn ($1.38bn) Rajo Inca project were started in August 2021, with commissioning expected in the second half of 2022. The mine is expected to reach its full production capacity in the first half of 2023.
...............
BELAZ, a mining truck manufacturer based in Belarus, was contracted to supply 18 mining dump trucks for the Rajo Inca copper project in June 2021. The order includes 136t BELAZ-7513, 240t BELAZ-7531C, and 290t BELAZ-75320 trucks.
..................
Étonnement ils utilisent des gros camions de BELAZ qui est un constructeur du Belarus.

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Re: Le Cuivre

Message par energy_isere » 21 nov. 2021, 14:48

Un nouveau prospect de Cuivre, Kwanika en Colombie Britannique, Canada.
NorthWest Copper extends high-grade zone at Kwanika in British Columbia

Henry Lazenby | November 16, 2021

All five holes have intercepts of greater than 1% copper-equivalent and contain meaningful gold grades. According to the company, these results reinforce the high-grade nature and continuity of the deposit.
.................
https://www.mining.com/northwest-copper ... rade-zone/

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Re: Le Cuivre

Message par energy_isere » 28 nov. 2021, 11:15

en relation avec 3 posts au dessus.
Zijin approves investment in $769m Congo copper smelter

Reuters | November 23, 2021

Zijin Mining said on Tuesday its board had approved investment in a $769 million smelter for its Kamoa-Kakula copper project alongside Ivanhoe Mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).


The venture will reduce the partners’ reliance on third-party smelters to process their ore and make blister, a partially purified form of copper.

SIGN UP FOR THE COPPER DIGEST


The 500,000-tonne-per-year direct-to-blister plant will be the largest copper smelter in Africa and one of the largest single-line smelters in the world, Ivanhoe said last week when announcing the award of the basic engineering contract to China Nerin Engineering Co.

The $769 million, which includes $699 million for construction, will come from the Kamoa-Kamula joint venture’s (JV) own cash flows, Zijin said in a filing.

Known as Kamoa Copper, Ivanhoe and Zijin will own 39.6% each, the DRC government 20% and Crystal River Global Limited 0.8%.

Construction of the plant is expected to take three years, Zijin added.

Around 35% of current copper concentrate output from Kamoa-Kakula, which started producing in May, is treated at the nearby Lualaba smelter, majority-owned by China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd (CNMC), while the rest is transported to international smelters.

Kamoa-Kamula’s first phase is expected to produce around 200,000 tonnes of copper per year, while Phase 2 expansion to 400,000 tonnes per year is on track to be completed in the second quarter of 2022, Ivanhoe said last week.

The Canada-based company says Kamoa-Kakula has the potential to reach peak annual copper production of more than 800,000 tonnes, which would make it the world’s second-largest copper mining complex, after the Escondida mine in Chile.
https://www.mining.com/web/zijin-approv ... r-smelter/

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Re: Le Cuivre

Message par energy_isere » 12 déc. 2021, 11:11

Un prospect de cuivre et Or au Panama : le projet Caballito
Orla Mining reports initial resource for copper-gold deposit in Panama

MINING.COM Staff Writer | December 6, 2021

................
Caballito is a new zone comprised of low-arsenic copper-gold mineralization, located south of the Quemita reserve that was discovered in 2017. The deposit locally outcrops at surface, and the mineralization has been intersected over an estimated strike length of approximately 800 m and a vertical extent of approximately 400 m. It remains open along strike and at depth.

The initial mineral resource estimate for Caballito consists of 31.95 Mt of sulphide indicated resources at an average grade of 0.96% CuEq (for 676 Mlb of CuEq), plus about 22.57 Mt of sulphide inferred resources at an average grade of 0.85% CuEq (for 425 Mlb of CuEq).

“Caballito is a grassroots discovery that has the potential to transform our future in the country. We first discovered this high-grade copper-gold mineralization in 2017, and have continued to systematically explore the region, having now drilled over 40 more holes in Caballito,” Orla CEO Jason Simpson said in a news release.

Orla is now targeting a 2022 drill program aimed at expanding the known resources at Caballito, as well as the Idaida zone to the northwest. The company will also drill test several newly defined targets.
..................
https://www.mining.com/orla-mining-repo ... in-panama/

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Re: Le Cuivre

Message par energy_isere » 19 déc. 2021, 12:27

suite de ce post du 24 mars 2019 viewtopic.php?p=2282118#p2282118

au sujet du prospect de Cuivre (avec du Molybdène et de l' argent) de Rosemont en Arizona.
Hudbay releases initial estimate for Copper World, near Rosemont in Arizona

Canadian Mining Journal Staff | December 15, 2021

Hudbay Minerals (TSX: HBM; NYSE: HBM) has released the initial resource estimate for its Copper World deposit with 272 million indicated tonnes and 142 million inferred tonnes, both grading 0.36% copper. The deposit is located near the company’s 100%-owned Rosemont copper project 50 km southeast of Tucson.


The Copper World mineralization is close to the surface and can be mined with conventional open pit methods. There are seven deposits extending over a 7-km strike length, including Bolsa, Broad Top Butte, Copper World, Peach, Elgin, South Limb, and North Limb. The deposits lie northwest of the Rosemont deposit and lie mainly on land that Hudbay owns.
...................
https://www.mining.com/hudbay-releases- ... n-arizona/

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Re: Le Cuivre

Message par energy_isere » 02 janv. 2022, 13:32

China’s Zijin begins production at Qulong copper mine in Tibet

By NS Energy Staff Writer 28 Dec 2021

Following the commencement of production at the Qulong mine, Julong Copper is expected to produce 120,000 to 130,000 tonnes of copper in 2022.

China-based Zijin Mining has started production at its Qulong copper mine in Tibet, 18 months after the acquisition of 50.1% equity interest in its operator Tibet Julong Copper.

Tibet Julong Copper holds mining rights for the Qulong copper and polymetallic mine, Rongmucuola copper mine and the Zhibula copper and polymetallic mine.

With several low-grade copper resources, the long-term resource reserves at Julong area are expected to be more than 20 million tonnes.

Together with with the production volume of the Zhibula copper mine and following the commencement of production at the Qulong mine, Julong Copper is expected to produce 120,000 to 130,000 tonnes of copper in 2022.

Qulong mining complex is a large, open-pit copper and polymetallic mining area, located in the Mozhugongka County, Lhasa, Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) of China.

It was designed to be constructed in two stages, with Phase 1 being completed now.

The Phase 1 mining project is estimated to deliver an annual copper output of around 160,000 tonnes, after reaching its designed capacity.

The Phase 2 project is anticipated to have a daily capacity of 300,000 tonnes and produce 260,000 tonnes copper per annum.

Qulong copper mine has secured mining permit from the People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s Ministry of Land and Resources (MLR), in September 2016.

According to Zijin, Qulong is the largest copper mine to be located at the highest altitude area in China and would become one of the world’s largest copper mines.

Zijin Mining stated: “The completion of construction and commencement of production of phase 1 of Julong Copper are the results of the Old Tibetan Spirit demonstrated by the project team.

“Julong Copper will fully put the ideas of eco- development and co-development into practice, to exert positive effects on the promotion of ecological development, environmental protection, ethnic unity, employment and talent development and other aspects, as well as promote the social and economic development of the project location.”

According to the company, it has resumed the construction at the project after its acquisition in July 2020, with the support from the local government.

Also, it has optimised the project plan, organised the construction, prioritised the ecological development and environmental protection at the mining site, claimed the company.
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/news/c ... ng-copper/

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Re: Le Cuivre

Message par energy_isere » 08 janv. 2022, 16:32

LE CUIVRE DANS LA TRANSITION ÉNERGÉTIQUE : UN MÉTAL ESSENTIEL, STRUCTUREL ET GÉOPOLITIQUE !

04.12.2020 IFP energies nouvelles

Pourquoi s’inquiéter du cuivre dans la transition énergétique ? Une équipe du département Économie et Évaluation environnementale d’IFPEN anticipe que sa consommation pourrait bien exploser à l’horizon 2050, et ce alors même que la Chine engage depuis les années 2000 une stratégie pour sécuriser les approvisionnements de ce métal, essentiel pour de nombreux secteurs de l’économie mondiale.

Des technologies bas carbone gourmandes en cuivre
Où se trouve le cuivre ? Qui le produit ?
Quels risques pèsent sur le cuivre ?
Comment réduire les risques d’approvisionnement ?
A retenir : l'essentiel sur le cuivre en vidéo

....................
lire : https://www.ifpenergiesnouvelles.fr/art ... opolitique

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Re: Le Cuivre

Message par energy_isere » 09 janv. 2022, 18:43

Un prospect de Cuivre en Zambie.
Galileo signs JV deal for Luansobe copper project in Zambia

By NS Energy Staff Writer 03 Jan 2022

Covering an area of 918ha, the Luansobe project is located nearly 15km to the northwest of Mufulira Mine in the Zambian Copperbelt

UK-based Galileo Resources has signed a joint venture agreement with Statunga Investments for the Luansobe copper project in Zambia.

Under the terms of the agreement, Galileo holds the right to earn an initial 75% interest in a special purpose joint venture company, by making a payment of $400,000 by 20 February.

Comprising small-scale exploration licence, the Luansobe project covers an area of 918ha, which was granted in February last year with its initial four-year term expiring on 15 February 2025.

The Luansobe area is located nearly 15km to the northwest of Mufulira Mine in the Zambian Copperbelt that produced more than nine million tonnes (Mt) of copper metal during its operation.

The project has an estimated non-JORC compliant mineral resource of 5.5 million tonnes at 1.6% total copper and 0.5% acidic soluble copper.
......................
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/news/g ... in-zambia/#

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Re: Le Cuivre

Message par energy_isere » 15 janv. 2022, 10:59

suite de ce post du 3 oct 2021 viewtopic.php?p=2327849#p2327849
RDC : après avoir dépassé les prévisions en 2021, Kamoa-Kakula livrera jusqu’à 340 000 tonnes de cuivre cette année


Agence Ecofin 11 janvier 2022

L’année 2021 a été marquée par l’entrée en production de Kamoa-Kakula. En attendant de devenir la deuxième plus grande mine de cuivre au monde dans quelques années, le complexe a fait mieux que prévu et 2022 s’annonce encore meilleure.

En RDC, Ivanhoe Mines a publié le 10 janvier les résultats opérationnels obtenus à son complexe de cuivre Kamoa-Kakula pour le compte de l’année écoulée. Entré en production commerciale le 1er juillet, l’actif a livré 105 884 tonnes de concentré de cuivre en 2021, dépassant les prévisions les plus optimistes de 92 500 à 100 000 tonnes.

Pour 2022, première année d’exploitation complète du projet, Ivanhoe et son partenaire Zijin Mining veulent tripler la production, avec une fourchette prévisionnelle de 290 000 à 340 000 tonnes de concentré de cuivre. Il faut souligner que cet optimisme est fondé sur la réussite des plans de développement du complexe, notamment l’achèvement au deuxième trimestre de la phase 2.

« La phase 2 de notre extension reste très en avance sur le calendrier et nous sommes en bonne voie pour doubler notre production annualisée de cuivre à plus de 400 000 tonnes à partir du début du deuxième trimestre 2022, ce qui propulsera Kamoa Copper parmi les dix plus grandes mines de cuivre du monde », indique Robert Friedland, coprésident exécutif d’Ivanhoe Mines.

À terme, rappelons que le complexe devrait produire environ 800 000 tonnes de concentré, devenant ainsi la deuxième plus grande mine de cuivre au monde. C’est une source de revenus importante pour l’Etat congolais et ses propriétaires ont même lancé la construction de la plus grande fonderie d’Afrique, afin de soutenir les ambitions de Kinshasa en rapport à la transformation locale des minéraux.
https://www.agenceecofin.com/cuivre/110 ... ette-annee

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Re: Le Cuivre

Message par energy_isere » 17 janv. 2022, 23:32

Rysdat prévoi un déficit de production de Cuivre de 6 millions de tonnes annuel en 2030 à cause de l'écart croissant entre demande et capacité de production.
A Copper Crisis Threatens The Energy Transition

By Rystad Energy - Jan 15, 2022

> Global demand for copper is forecast to outstrip supply by more than six million tonnes by 2030
> A combination of low investment, environmental resistance, and supply chain issues are set to send copper prices even higher
> The supply shortage will almost certainly boost recycling levels as demand is only set to grow

Global demand for copper, an essential component in manufacturing electric vehicles (EVs) and consumer electronics, will outstrip supply by more than six million tonnes by 2030, Rystad Energy projects. A deficit of this magnitude would have wide-reaching ramifications for the energy transition as there is currently no substitute for copper in electrical applications. Significant investment in copper mining is required to avoid the shortfall.

Copper demand is projected to rise 16% by the end of the decade, reaching 25.5 million tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2030, compared with a supply forecast showing a 12% decrease versus 2021 levels. Estimates based on current and expected projects show supply will clock in at 19.1 million tpa, falling well short of the quantity needed to meet demand.

Investment in copper mining is risky as current operations are near peak capacity due to ore quality and reserves exhaustion, exerting upward pressure on production costs and emissions. However, copper prices are currently high, which could encourage investors to accept a greater level of risk.

“Lackluster investments in copper mining are stumping supply, as the pandemic-driven market instability encourages investors to hold on to their capital. As the energy transition continues at pace and EV adoption grows in populous nations like China and India, the copper mining industry requires significant investment to keep up with demand,” says James Ley, global energy metals expert and Senior Vice President with Rystad Energy.

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he growing renewables and EV markets have pushed copper demand higher, causing prices to soar. Prices have risen 70% during the pandemic. The current spike in infection cases, due mainly to the spread of the Omicron variant, is causing further supply chain bottlenecks, leaving prices at all-time highs entering 2022.

The outlook for copper investment paints a bleak picture for future supply, indicating a significant supply deficit could emerge from 2023 onwards. The expected demand increase is due to the market growth of renewables – solar, onshore and offshore wind, among others – EVs, construction and electronics. With India’s projected economic growth and the buildout of EVs from China, the demand projection could end up being conservative and the supply shortfall even more severe.

Supply concerns

Copper mining is an energy-intensive process that produces a large amount of carbon emissions. The government of Peru, one of the world’s largest exporters of copper, ordered several mines to close in November 2021 amid environmental protests. As a result, four mines in the southern Ayacucho region could be barred from further expansion, which would dent the copper, silver, and gold portfolio of large UK-based minerals producer Hochschild Mining. In addition, the Las Bambas copper mine in southern Peru that produces 400,000 tpa of the material – or about 2% of global supply – will reportedly shut production due to transportation issues. Political instability in neighboring Chile, another major producer, further adds to the supply problems.



In recent years, mining investors have been primarily focusing on the lowest-risk projects, while also offering high dividends. Coupled with the ongoing issues of pandemic lockdowns, work stoppages, and delays, copper supply growth has decelerated.

A supply deficit could cause projects in many industries to experience lengthier lead times, especially when considering copper demand from all sectors combined is projected to grow 32% by 2040, compared with 2020 levels. This includes the contributions of solar, onshore/offshore wind, hydroelectric, biomass, and nuclear. Demand for oil and gas is expected to fall, with global production of these fossil fuels also expected to decrease.

Since 75% of mined copper is used in electrical wires, power grids, and motherboards, it is an indispensable commodity. Due to continued demand growth outpacing available supply, intermittent supply shortages would likely significantly impact raw copper rather than semi-finished product inventory.

New discoveries

New copper resources continue to be discovered – such as Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) – yet many remain undeveloped as potential mines can suffer from low ore grades and fiscal or political uncertainty in the host country can delay development. Interestingly, UK brokerage Marex Spectron sees the potential for 2022 offering a copper surplus, saying in December 2021 that major new projects – such as Teck’s QBII mine in Chile and Anglo American’s Quellaveco project in Peru – could add 200,000 tpa. Ivanhoe’s mine in the DRC could add another 70,000 tpa, while the ramp-up at Freeport’s Grasberg mine could add a further 110,000 tpa. However, despite this supply growth potential, projects will require a politically stable environment, and their operators must be mindful of the emissions targets to entice would-be investors.

Mining companies are still among the highest dividend payers, and new copper discoveries remain undeveloped mainly due to perceived risks. Overall, any copper supply shortages will almost certainly encourage greater recycling levels to boost availability.

By Rystad Energy
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... ition.html

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