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EIA: Led By Permian, US Oil Output to Grow by 500K B/D in 2025
Rig counts are down since 2023, but well productivity is marching forward.

August 22, 2024 By Trent Jacobs

The US is on track to produce an average of 13.7 million B/D of crude oil in 2025—an increase of approximately 500,000 B/D over this year’s projected average.

The forecast comes from the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short-term energy outlook report.

The report highlights that the growth in productivity is expected despite the ongoing decline in the number of active drilling rigs across the US.

This is largely because the engine of US growth, the prolific Permian Basin shared between Texas and New Mexico, continues to power ahead.

The Permian is home to nearly double the number of rigs in operation compared to the rest of the Lower 48 states combined—313 rigs in the Permian vs. 165 elsewhere, according to the EIA. At the beginning of 2023, those numbers stood at 352 and 242 , respectively.

EIA data also show that as of July new Permian wells were generating a combined 433,000 B/D in their first month of production, which was more than enough to offset declines from older wells.

Natural gas production is following a similar trend, with new wells in the region yielding 780,000 MMscf/D in their first month.

“Growing well productivity suggests that operators in the Permian are successfully implementing more advanced drilling and completion techniques, including longer lateral lengths, optimized well spacing, and enhanced fracturing designs,” the EIA concluded.

The EIA forecasts a 430,000 B/D increase in Permian oil production from 2023 levels, reaching 6.3 million B/D by the end of this year. With further productivity gains anticipated, Permian output could slow but is still expected to rise by another 300,000 B/D in 2025.
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The projections are mixed for the other two major oil basins in the US.

The Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas should see production decline from 1.16 million B/D in 2023 to 1.1 million B/D in 2024, a 5% decrease. However, the trend may reverse in 2025 as the EIA forecasts a 4.5% increase to 1.15 million B/D.

North Dakota’s Bakken Shale is already on the rebound with oil production increasing almost 5% from 2023 to an average of 1.28 million B/D in 2024. That figure may grow another 3% next year to 1.32 million B/D.

The EIA also expects the Federal Gulf of Mexico to see a mixed trend, with production shrinking by 3.7% from 1.87 million B/D in 2023 to 1.8 million B/D in 2024. A recovery of 2.8% to 1.85 million B/D is forecast in 2025.

In its latest short term energy outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its U.S. crude oil production forecast for 2024.

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff | Friday, June 21, 2024

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its U.S. crude oil production forecast for 2024.

The EIA now sees total U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, averaging 13.24 million barrels per day this year. In its previous May STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil output would average 13.20 million barrels per day.

Of the 13.24 million barrel per day production figure in the EIA’s June STEO, Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, take the largest share, with 11.02 million barrels per day, the STEO showed. The Permian region dominates Lower 48 states production, with 6.31 million barrels per day, followed by the Bakken region, with 1.30 million barrels per day, and the Eagle Ford region, with 1.08 million barrels per day, the STEO outlined.

The Appalachia region is forecast to produce 0.16 million barrels per day this year and the Haynesville region is forecast to produce 0.03 million barrels per day this year, the STEO revealed. The rest of the Lower 48 states are projected to produce 2.14 million barrels per day, according to the STEO, which pointed out that regional production is based on geographic regions and not geologic formations.

The Federal Gulf of Mexico is anticipated to produce 1.81 million barrels per day in 2024 and Alaska is forecast to produce 0.41 million barrels per day this year, the report outlined.

Total U.S. crude oil production is anticipated to average 13.17 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.33 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.50 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, according to the report.
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EIA Slightly Lowers 2024 USA Crude Oil Output Forecast

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff | May 28, 2024

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) slightly lowered its 2024 U.S. crude oil production forecast.

The EIA now sees the country’s crude oil output averaging 13.20 million barrels per day this year. In its previous STEO, which was released in April, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production would average 13.21 million barrels per day. Both STEOs peg 2023 U.S. crude oil output at 12.93 million barrels per day.

According to its latest STEO, the EIA is projecting that, in 2024, Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), will produce 10.99 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of Mexico will produce 1.81 million barrels per day, and Alaska will produce 0.41 million barrels per day.
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tita a écrit : ↑

10 févr. 2022, 07:54

Dans le dernier STEO, la production/consommation mondiale est quasi à l'équilibre en janvier à 99 Mb/j. Habituellement, néanmoins, le mois de janvier a un niveau de consommation faible. Mais janvier 2022 est un record, et va probablement donner le ton sur le reste de l'année... En gros, on est retourné aux niveaux de consommation pré-pandémique.

Reste à voir si la production va réussir à suivre. L'EIA semble le prédire avec une augmentation des stocks pétroliers assez importante sur l'année 2022, et un retour à une production en-dessus de 100 Mb/j dès avril, et une moyenne de 101.38 Mb/j sur 2022, dépassant le pic de 2018 à 100.43 Mb/j.

Ah oui, selon le STEO, le pic de production global n'est pas en 2019 mais en 2018. La production avait légèrement diminué en 2019 à 100.25 Mb/j. Une pichenette.

L'année 2022 va être intéressante à observer. L'EIA s'attend à une croissance de la production boostée par les prix élevés du pétrole.

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La principale nouvelle du jour est venue du rapport mensuel de l'Agence américaine d'information sur l'Energie (EIA), qui prévoit que la demande mondiale d'hydrocarbures va progresser davantage (1,4 million de barils par jour) que la production (+600.000 barils par jour) en 2024, un écart de nature à soutenir les cours.

L'agence tient compte des engagements de plusieurs membres de l'Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole (Opep) et de ses alliés de l'accord Opep+ de restreindre encore leurs volumes cette année.

L'EIA s'attend, en revanche, à ce que les Etats-Unis enregistrent un nouveau record de production, à 13,2 millions de barils par jour (bpj), avant d'augmenter encore la cadence en 2025, pour atteindre 13,4 millions bpj.
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tita a écrit : ↑

14 sept. 2023, 11:20

Depuis mai, on est à nouveau en train de réduire ces inventaires, et ça devrait continuer jusqu'à la fin de l'année.

USA Crude Oil Production Averages Over 13 Million Barrels Per Day

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff|Tuesday, October 17, 2023

U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.13 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released last week.

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EIA forecasts crude oil prices will increase through 2024 as demand rises above supply



We forecast higher crude oil prices in the second half of 2023 and into 2024 in our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) because of moderate but persistent inventory drawdowns. Inventory drawdowns take place when demand for a commodity is greater than the supply of that commodity. We expect production cuts from OPEC members and forecast higher petroleum consumption will lead to an average inventory drawdown of 0.4 million barrels per day (b/d) between July 2023 and the end of 2024.

The forecast Brent crude oil price will increase to the mid-$80 per barrel range by the end of 2024, up from the June 2023 average of $75 per barrel. We forecast the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price will follow a similar path and maintain a discount to Brent of $5 per barrel.

On June 4, OPEC+ members agreed to extend crude oil production cuts through the end of 2024. The cuts had previously been set to expire at the end of 2023. Following the June 4 meeting, Saudi Arabia also announced a new voluntary oil production cut of 1.0 million b/d for July and August 2023.

We estimate that Saudi Arabia produced about 10% of global production of petroleum and other liquid fuels, or 10.1 million b/d, in June 2023. We forecast OPEC production of petroleum and other liquid fuels will average 33.9 million b/d in 2024, down 1.2 million b/d from the group’s 2022 peak of 35.1 million b/d. These production cuts will keep total OPEC production below the pre-pandemic five-year (2015–19) average of 36.2 million b/d and reduce OPEC’s share of world production to 33% in 2024, down from the pre-pandemic average share of 37%.

We slightly increased our forecasts for world petroleum consumption in recent months, in contrast to our downward revisions in world petroleum production. In our latest forecast, we expect non-OECD consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels to grow by 1.6 million b/d from 2022 to average 55.1 million b/d in 2023 and to rise further to 56.5 million b/d in 2024. China and India lead our forecast of consumption growth. We forecast petroleum and liquid fuels consumption in China to grow by 0.8 million b/d in 2023 and by 0.4 million b/d in 2024; India’s consumption is forecast to grow by 0.3 million b/d in both 2023 and 2024.

Oil prices in 2023 have been considerably less volatile than they were between 2020 and 2022. However, changes in world production and consumption could result in significant differences in oil prices than in our forecast for 2024.